It really is difficult to see any good coming out of the American and Israeli decision to attack Iran a month ago.
If the regime had collapsed and the good people of Iran could have put in place a stable government without the brutality of the Shahs or the Ayatollahs, then most people would have ignored the illegality and got on with the new Middle East order.
What has in fact happened reflects the headstrong, egotistical, vainglorious, and profoundly ignorant approach of the American President.
As I write we don’t know if there is anything in the rumours of peace talks. The alternative appears to be American occupation of parts of Iran to seize oil and prevent the Iranians closing the Straits. A risky raid to seize their uranium might be thrown in.
But what happens after that? How long would the Americans stay? Who would drill the Iranian oil? One way or the other it looks as if the deep entrenchment of the Revolutionary Guards and their preparedness to ruthlessly put down any opposition will mean that the regime remains. It will be more hardline and determined to reassert itself and its proxies and to get a nuclear weapon to ensure it is not attacked again.
Meanwhile the damage to a whole host of countries and global institutions is severe.
Israel is right to say that allowing Hamas and Hezbollah to lob rockets into its country is intolerable. Its solution has been to raze Gaza and Southern Lebanon to the ground. Arguments rage over its actions but it does appear that, certainly under Netanyahu violence not reconciliation is the policy. It will suppress but not solve the need for a Palestinian state in some form.
The United States has shown its power, but its reputation is in the gutter. Repressive at home, insulting its allies abroad, tilting towards Russia. Now we are sending poor King Charles there on a state visit.
Russia’s economy has been saved by more expensive oil which will aid its brutal war against Ukraine.
The Gulf States have big decisions to make. Do they side more openly with America or see hosting their military bases as a target on their back, consequentially seeking to appease Iran.
Perhaps most serious of all is the damage done to two organisations set up after World War Two to ensure peace. The United Nations has been completely bypassed. Reflect on how far we have come down the might is right path. In 2003 Bush and Blair at least acknowledged the UN before defying it over Iraq.
Then there is NATO. Trump was right that the European members need to spend more on defence. However, his sneering insults have raised real questions about unity in the face of possible Russian aggression against the Baltic States.
As far as the UK is concerned the best bet is that Sir Keir Starmer will stay in place. His stance on the war is popular. It will be brave backbenchers who try and topple him during a global crisis. However, Labour’s prospects of delivering real growth before the next election have taken a hammering. Inflation, higher interest rates, and suppression of business investment look likely.
Despite all this try and have a Happy Easter!
