Boris Bounce – but my money is still on hung parliament

Back from a fortnight in the sun, Frank McKenna’s blog returns this week – and he’s warning the Tory Party that Boris Johnson would fail to win an Autumn election.


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[vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” overlay_strength=”0.3″ shape_divider_position=”bottom”][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” width=”2/3″ tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text]Not surprisingly the Conservative Party enjoyed an increase in support according to polls released last weekend, following their election of a new leader and prime minister.

However, the so-called ‘Boris Bounce’ was not as big as the Tories would have hoped. Even the most optimistic of polls fail to give the government enough support to suggest they would enjoy an overall majority if a General Election were held tomorrow.

It is for this reason that many are predicting that the new PM will resist calls to go to the country. The fact is though, he may not get the choice.

Although Johnson enjoyed a comfortable victory in a leadership contest with a ‘selectorate’ of Tory Party members, many of his parliamentary colleagues are not as enamored. His extremely bullish approach to a ‘No Deal’ Brexit will likely lead to a no-confidence vote being tabled in the commons next month – and I think the government will lose it.

For many Boris-supporting Conservatives this sounds like panacea. They will, reasonably, believe that the Tory campaign will be a million times better than that they had to endure during Theresa May’s disastrous ‘snap election’ gamble in 2017. They are acutely aware that any gloss that Jeremy Corbyn had two years ago has significantly dulled. Labour’s position on what will be a key issue of any campaign, Brexit, is, to put it kindly, all over the place.

What they appear to be failing to factor in though is that the next contest will not be the straight two-party fight it turned into two years ago. A shambolic UKIP has been replaced by a Farage rejuvenated Brexit Party. The Liberal Democrats, with a fresh new leader and a credible alternative offer over the country’s future in the EU, will perform far better.

Again, Johnson supporters will point to the more aggressive approach to Brexit as the way to spike the Farage guns. I’m not convinced. If there is an Autumn election Conservative Associations will find it extremely difficult to ditch ‘Remain’ Tories. That will allow the Brexit Party to create enough doubt in ultra-Brexiteers minds to lend it their vote.

Likewise, in constituencies where they are competing with the Liberal Democrats, the government’s hardline Brexit stance is going down like a cup of cold sick. Jo Swanson will be anticipating gaining as many seats from the Tories as she could from Labour.

In a nutshell, an awful lot has changed since the last election, but an awful lot has stayed the same. Neither of the two major parties have the trust of the British public to govern alone.

Throw in a further fillip to the SNP in Scotland, another area where the Lib Dems will hope to improve its performance, and the ingredients for a hung parliament are more prevalent than was the case in 2017.

Positive thinking, smart soundbites and throwing money at it won’t secure a Brexit deal. It won’t secure a parliamentary majority either.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” width=”1/3″ tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_raw_html]JTNDYSUyMGhyZWYlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGRG93bnRvd25GcmFuayUzRnJlZl9zcmMlM0R0d3NyYyUyNTVFdGZ3JTIyJTIwY2xhc3MlM0QlMjJ0d2l0dGVyLWZvbGxvdy1idXR0b24lMjIlMjBkYXRhLXNob3ctY291bnQlM0QlMjJmYWxzZSUyMiUzRUZvbGxvdyUyMCU0MERvd250b3duRnJhbmslM0MlMkZhJTNFJTNDc2NyaXB0JTIwYXN5bmMlMjBzcmMlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnBsYXRmb3JtLnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGd2lkZ2V0cy5qcyUyMiUyMGNoYXJzZXQlM0QlMjJ1dGYtOCUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRnNjcmlwdCUzRQ==[/vc_raw_html][vc_raw_html]JTNDYSUyMGNsYXNzJTNEJTIydHdpdHRlci10aW1lbGluZSUyMiUyMGRhdGEtaGVpZ2h0JTNEJTIyMTAwMCUyMiUyMGhyZWYlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGRG93bnRvd25GcmFuayUzRnJlZl9zcmMlM0R0d3NyYyUyNTVFdGZ3JTIyJTNFVHdlZXRzJTIwYnklMjBEb3dudG93bkZyYW5rJTNDJTJGYSUzRSUyMCUzQ3NjcmlwdCUyMGFzeW5jJTIwc3JjJTNEJTIyaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZwbGF0Zm9ybS50d2l0dGVyLmNvbSUyRndpZGdldHMuanMlMjIlMjBjaGFyc2V0JTNEJTIydXRmLTglMjIlM0UlM0MlMkZzY3JpcHQlM0UlMjA=[/vc_raw_html][vc_raw_html]JTNDYSUyMGhyZWYlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGRG93bnRvd25GcmFuayUzRnJlZl9zcmMlM0R0d3NyYyUyNTVFdGZ3JTIyJTIwY2xhc3MlM0QlMjJ0d2l0dGVyLWZvbGxvdy1idXR0b24lMjIlMjBkYXRhLXNob3ctY291bnQlM0QlMjJmYWxzZSUyMiUzRUZvbGxvdyUyMCU0MERvd250b3duRnJhbmslM0MlMkZhJTNFJTNDc2NyaXB0JTIwYXN5bmMlMjBzcmMlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnBsYXRmb3JtLnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGd2lkZ2V0cy5qcyUyMiUyMGNoYXJzZXQlM0QlMjJ1dGYtOCUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRnNjcmlwdCUzRQ==[/vc_raw_html][/vc_column][/vc_row]

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