In fewer than four weeks we will know who the next President of USA will be and, by extension, the most powerful man or woman in the World.
Just to be clear, I want Harris to win. In fact, to be wholly accurate, I just want Trump to lose.
But despite a series of exposes, missteps, criminal prosecutions and ongoing court proceedings, all of which in most healthy democracies would have rendered this race run and decided, there still isn’t a cigarette paper between the two candidates whom it seems no-one in America really wants to win.
Next week, legendary author and political journalist Bob Woodward – he of Watergate fame – publishes his new book, WAR, in which he reveals verbatim conversations between former President Trump and current Russian oligarch-in-chief Vladimir Putin.
This is a crime.
All these exchanges occurred after Trump left office, and therefore fall foul of the Logan Act which expressly forbids US citizens from engaging in private diplomacy with foreign governments and regimes with whom the US is in conflict or dispute.
Trump’s endlessly fallible Vice President pick JD Vance didn’t help his boss’s cause when he told USA Today:
“Even if it’s true, look, is there something wrong with speaking to world leaders? No. Is there anything wrong with engaging in diplomacy?”
Well as we know, there is an awful lot wrong with that.
Of course, this is US politics and Logan’s Act won’t be enforced.
No criminal trial will result from whatever transactions, promises or deals were cut between the two men.
But you would hope further news about how Trump is undermining US and global efforts to bring peace to Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression would dent his electoral chances.
But I wouldn’t hold my breath.
American politics is no longer a zero-sum game. Just because one candidate sheds votes, it doesn’t automatically mean the other picks them up. This seems especially true in this polarized election.
As I said, I hope Trump loses and, in a two-horse race, that means Harris must win.
I and others have written much about why Trump deserves to lose, but a lot less about why Harris should win. That is in part because we are, with 25 days to go, still to be convinced.
As a campaign guy, I can only imagine the frustration Harris’ team are feeling with their candidate’s inability to put this election to bed. Go for the jugular, prosecute his shortcomings, tap the long line of people speaking out against him and his suitability to represent the people.
But instead, we hear little and see less from the wannabe commander-in-chief.
I wonder who she listens to and what advice she is hearing?
Harris – it seems – is at best, non-committal, perhaps with good reason based on her successes so far.
After all, she has got to be within a whisker of potentially the biggest job in the world but hasn’t really had to make a big political play in doing so, instead tucking in behind the mainstream and riding the slip stream.
Supported by California Democrat royalty, she was chosen as their pick for Attorney General. Then, when veteran Congresswoman Barbara Boxer stepped aside, party machinery pushed Harris forward as her replacement for what turned into a coronation rather than an election.
Harris put herself forward to run for President in 2020, but despite having strong support from California elected officials and the Black Causcus she was unable to tap Hollywood or big business for the funds which are necessary to compete in American politics.
Shortly after withdrawing from the fight to be the Democrat’s Presidential candidate and continuing her pattern of choosing the route of least resistance, Harris accepted Biden’s invitation to be his VP pick and made history by being the first woman of colour to hold that office.
And now in 2024, after Biden stepped down following questions about his ability to compete with Trump, Kamala Harris found herself once again the party’s choice to fill the gap and is top of the ticket for November 5th’s poll.
In this era of professional politicians – where public office is a career not a calling – you can only congratulate Kamala Harris on having played the game remarkably well.
It should also be acknowledged that she is an effective campaigner when she is in office. Her role as Attorney General, California Senator and as VP have seen her champion causes she is passionate about.
But my criticism, if it is worth anything, is that she has never had to go out to the electorate and fight to earn the right to represent them and their issues.
Winning elections is politics at its most raw. It is about connecting with the electorate in a visceral way, about showing not only compassion and understanding but that there is a credible plan to fix things and improve life and circumstances for voters.
You get the feeling, the discussions in the back rooms of Kamala HQ are about ‘us not losing’ rather than ‘us winning’. Evertonians like me will know the shortcomings of this approach – you’ll never win a game if you don’t attack.
So, is it too late?
Happily, no. For many voters across the country, the election only starts to come into focus about now. But with Trump declining further Live TV Debates there are fewer reasons for voters to pay attention, and a heightened need to take the choice to them.
Harris needs to make this about a series of binary choices – good vs bad, prosecutor v accused, and honesty v lies.
But it needs to be played out against the backdrop of issues which voters tell pollsters and campaign teams matter most.
This will be unchartered territory for Harris.
She needs to come out swinging on immigration. She needs to be clear that the current state of affairs where upwards of 12million illegal immigrants are bounced around from city to city, state to state has to end. That means getting tough at the Southern border the most porous and most visible crossing point.
Second, Harris needs to claim the little bit of success the current administration has had. Policies to promote ‘re-shoring’ of jobs back to the US, creating 13 million new jobs and pushing unemployment to its lowest level since the 1950’s. The stock market is currently at 52-week highs and inflation is seemingly back under control – own it, Kamala, own it.
And even core Republicans – veterans, pensioners, blue-collar, rural, Christian – are shit scared of falling ill.
The current administration has made progress on capping prescription drug prices, affordable health insurance and pledging support for Medicare the only socialised health care system supporting the nation’s elders. This is a vote winner if she seizes the initiative.
Harris needs to be crystal clear where she stands on these big issues, stating what she is going to do as soon as she gets back to the White House.
Sure, it would be the biggest and boldest play in the life of the lawyer turned politician cum Presidential hopeful from California – but unlike Trump, this is her election to lose.
