The next General Election is four or five years away. Currently the Conservative Party, after a campaign that has dragged on longer than a Netflix mini-series, is selecting its next leader.
The winner, to be announced on 2nd November, will be either Robert Jenrick or – more likely-Kemi Badenock.
However, I would suggest that the MP for Richmond has a better chance of leading the Tories into battle in 2028 or 2029 than either Jenrick or Badenock.
Currently the constituency of Richmond, Yorkshire is represented by the former Prime Minister, or as Keir Starmer likes to call him, the Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. No, I haven’t’ gone Republican ‘weird’, nor do I anticipate a Phoenix like Rish recovery.
I do think, though, that Sunak will resign his seat sooner rather than later, jetting off to sunnier climes, and that his Richmond replacement will be a big Tory beast who will win the subsequent by-election in the Yorkshire seat – and almost immediately be seen as a better option for the party leadership than either of the two candidates that many MPs and Conservative members are, to put it kindly, rather uninspired by.
The big question is not who will Sunak’s successor be as leader – but who will be his successor in Richmond?
Boris Johnson is on manoeuvres, having penned an alternative version of his time at Number 10. ‘Unleashed’ is ‘unrecognisable’ from what really happened in Downing Street during his tenure, but as a man who has never let the truth get in the way if fiction, it is good to see Johnson is at least consistent in one area of his life. Indeed, rumour has it that the Sunday Times didn’t know whether to list his book in the ‘fact’ or ‘fiction’ book chart!
Penny Mordaunt is another who is said to be seeking a speedy return to parliament. Her ability to hold a sword aloft for many hours still gets a good, blue-blooded Tory hot under the collar, and the former leadership contender may be seen as a better bet by Yorkshire-folk than the scoundrel who would spend less time in the constituency than his nemesis Nigel Farage spends in Clacton.
There will be other former Tory MPs in the running too for sure. Grant Shapps anyone?
But whoever it is, there is already bets being placed (I know, I know, some people never learn) on how long the new leader will last, rather than if they can win the next election.
Of course, politics has a way of surprising us. If Labour continues to struggle, Badenock discovers her charm gene, and the Conservative Party remembers that it lost many more votes and seats to the Liberal Democrats and Labour than it did to Reform, then she could be more Mrs Thatcher than Mrs Truss.
I have to say, though, I wouldn’t bet on it.
