Political success is often based on fine judgements. Get it right…” The lady’s not for turning” ……. (sadly) Get Brexit Done, and you are rewarded with electoral success in 1983, and 2019. Get it wrong…. Liberal David Steel’s prepare for government call or Sunak’s Stop the Boats and you lose in 1983 and 2024.
In recent weeks we have had three examples of politician’s risking overreach which may have big consequences.
First up was Nigel Farage’s pledge to scrap indefinite leave to remain. It has plunged 430,000 people into uncertainty. You can double that figure for the number of people who will know someone they love or respect who has settled here and paid their taxes. Watch for the row back but Reform may well be damaged by this piece of thoughtless policy making in pursuit of their legitimate campaign against the uncontrolled breaching of our borders by the small boats.
Then we have the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham. A double overreach here. It was unwise to upend the Labour Party conference with a thinly disguised leadership bid just as delegates assembled in Liverpool. He could have told my friend, the esteemed Mike Sweeney of BBC Radio Manchester “some misguided Labour MPs approached me, and I told them where to go.” Instead, he appeared helpless to their entreaties. Perhaps more seriously we had the desire not to be in hock to the bond markets. A few of my acquaintances favour this approach. They are frustrated at the situation where if Chancellor Reeves sheds a tear the threat of the International Monetary Fund moving in, looms.
Sadly, this is the capitalist world we live in Andy and predictably the shroud of Liz Truss was waved in your face. The practical obstacles for this talented and likeable politician getting in a position to challenge for the leadership were always difficult. To these we must now add poor judgement and too much ambition.
Finally, we come to Sir Keir Starmer where I only pose a question, not a definite comment on overreaching, in relation to his attack on Reform leader Nigel Farage. According to the Prime Minister he doesn’t like his country, is a snake oil salesman (no I’ve never been offered any either) or called Reform’s immigration policy racist.
Its that last one that is causing some apprehension as the delegates have returned from Liverpool.
All week Cabinet ministers have been challenged as to whether they think Farage himself is racist. They have generally resisted that description because call Farage a racist and you are in danger of branding all those reform supporters who have legitimate concerns about immigration with the same description.
I think the message of decency over division was a good one. I think Starmer, who is never going to be an orator, made a pretty good speech setting out his values and the modest achievements of Labour’s first year. But the jury is out over whether people now see what a Reform government might be like or rally to their insulted hero Farage who they think is getting brickbats for daring to break the two-party system in Britain.
