It is traditional to be cheerful at this time of the year. I’m afraid I can’t be as I look back over 2025. Luckily, Frank is providing the spirit lifting look forward to the New Year in his blog while I make the case for deep worry about the future based on the events of this year.
TRUMP
It has been dominated by the most disreputable President in the history of the United States (there goes my chances of a holiday across the pond). In the first year of his resumed presidency he has undermined European security, reintroduced the concept that the world should be ruled by strong men, used the US legal system to conduct personal vendettas and set back efforts to deal with climate change. His craving for the Nobel Peace Prize is frankly embarrassing for a number of reasons. He has not ended eight wars. He’s started one in Venezuela. Cambodia and Thailand are still fighting, there is no sign of stability in Gaza and in respect of Ukraine, Trump’s actions have encouraged Putin to continue the ghastly slaughter.
The result is that the threat of a general war in Europe is closer than at any time since 1945. If Trump walks away from Ukraine, the strain on an already divided Europe will be intense. Despite the incredible bravery of the Ukrainian armed forces, Russia will probably prevail in a few years time. Then they will start on the Baltic States, and we will have to respond or surrender. The challenge this represents to European leaders with populations used to high welfare support is huge. Have we even begun to think about how we would actually defend ourselves or ask our young to die in battle?
ALAS POOR ENGLAND
On the home front things are pretty dreadful. Health Secretary Wes Streeting had it right when he said the government was presenting itself as a maintenance department. I think he meant little vision, hopping from crisis to crisis and leaving people with complaints about bad workmanship.
The country needs growth, but employers feel hammered by new taxes. We need the welfare budget cut to stop those working hard feeling they are being exploited by the lazy. But Labour MPs don’t have the will to redesign the social security system, so it supports the truly deserving and penalises the feckless.
There is some hope on immigration. The new Home Secretary seems to get people’s frustration. However, the boat spectacle continues and will overwhelm the argument that we need immigration to boost the economy.
Then we come to moral standards. Governments seem unable to control the social media giants whose economic model is to promote the most extreme views to gain clicks which gets them advertising revenue. This is making our political debate harsher and more personal. No wonder we now have second rate politicians. Who wants the job? The same model is being used to influence our children with porn and self-harm. I remain to be convinced the recent legislation will do much. Elon Musk and Andrew Tate are out of control.
Amid all this gloom we do see individuals and groups showing kindness and generosity. Most people are good, but they cannot prevail when those in charge display aggression, lack of vision and selfishness.
The lessons of the twentieth century are being unlearned.
