With the largest number of MPs since 1923, the Liberal Democrats meet in Brighton this weekend in good heart.
I remain of the view that the Lib Dems largely benefited from a visceral anti Tory feeling in southern England. Nevertheless, Ed Davey’s eye catching and self-deprecating leadership worked. He is a decent man who has had a lot to deal with personally.
But there is a problem for the Lib Dems. They may have seventy-two seats, but it hasn’t delivered them a role as brokers of power between Labour and the Tories. They used such a position disastrously in 2010 by going into a Tory led coalition, ditching a promise on student fees, and being associated with austerity. So maybe it is a blessing nobody needs their support to form a government.
So, there is a danger that they will be ineffective in this parliament and lose seats as the Tories revive in 2029. So, what can they do to convince people to stick with them and keep the Conservatives at bay?
I have long been frustrated by their timidity on rejoining the EU. They certainly need to urge the government to build on their tentative first steps towards the ultimate goal. They need to champion the cause of a comprehensive reform of social care and their campaign on sewage is widely popular.
STRIDING BACKWARDS?
I’m sorry Mel Stride is out of the Tory leadership race. They need a stable figure from the centre of the party to carry the burden in the wilderness years. Stride would have provided that, now it must be James Cleverley. The problem is that after their conference, the MPs will probably fear a backlash if they don’t offer the grassroots Badenoch or Jenrick alongside him. The Tory activists will probably choose the right winger which will satisfy them but not the voters.
SWIFT PROGRESS
Kamala Harris won the Presidential debate. Trump just couldn’t resist her teasing. The former President now looks old and stale, but the polls remain very tight in the states that matter. The truth is they are too close to call at 47% Harris, 44% Trump. That 44% for Trump is rock solid whatever he does, whereas Harris still has to convince the small number of undecideds that she has the answers on the economy and the border.
Anyway, she has convinced one important undeclared voter. I’m normally sceptical about the value of celebrity endorsement, but such is the phenomenal popularity of Taylor Swift, that it might get out some younger voters who are sometimes difficult to get to the polls.
But looming over the race to the White House is the near certainty that anything other than a decisive Harris victory is going to see Trump and his supporters challenging the result again. This may not, initially, mean the open violence we saw on Jan 6, 2021, but a subverting of the election process by Trump backing officials that have been strategically placed in the election system.
