Defence budgets are rather like house insurance, money that we generally begrudge spending because we hope it’ll never be needed. Governments facing financial black holes and demands for investment across the board can, to a certain extent, be forgiven for putting defence lower down the agenda than health, education or transport – the things that people can see and feel are getting better or worse.
Warnings of lack of capacity from defence experts, retired generals and The Telegraph have become commonplace and thus often ignored. Perhaps we shouldn’t ignore two significant interventions from veterans minister Colonel Alistair Carns and head of the armed forces Admiral Sir Tony Radakin. Carns said the regular British army could be wiped out in just six months if it had to fight a war on the scale of that in Ukraine while Radakin warned that the world was entering a “third nuclear age” with more countries, especially China, now having nuclear weapons since the end of the Cold War and subsequent period of disarmament. Both men were speaking at event for reservists and unsurprisingly used it to stress how important they are to ‘generate depth and mass rapidly’ in the event of a crisis. The notion of a GenZ Dad’s Army taking on Putin or any other foe is risible but we do need to talk about defence and security.
The war in Ukraine is on our doorstep, the spreading conflict in the Middle East will reach far beyond that region, not least in terms of immigration as people flee warzones, and with the USA set to become more isolationist under Trump the outlook is pretty grim. Which is why the question about the UK choosing between America or Europe is so utterly idiotic. Trump has made his views on Europe and NATO clear although that probably won’t stop him or Elon Musk meddling in a ‘peace deal’ for Ukraine. Political turmoil in France and instability in Germany mean Europe is facing its potentially gravest crisis since the Second World War.
In Romania, Calin Georgescu, a far-right candidate who has called Putin a patriot, looks set to become president in run-off polls on Sunday. His success, according to declassified Romanian intelligence documents is largely due to a TikTok campaign similar to those run by the Kremlin elsewhere. Georgescu has questioned the future of a large NATO base and US missile defence system set up in Romania which could seriously weaken the alliance.
In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has warned that the country’s cybersecurity and infrastructure are under “severe threat” by foreign adversaries such as Russia and China. On the streets of Georgia, people have been protesting at the disputed newly elected ruling party’s backsliding on joining the EU. Again, there are suggestions of Russian interference. Against that backdrop of doom and gloom Keir Starmer’s much downplayed reset this week looks like a piece of cake but the bigger picture for his government and the UK is that we need to share the cake with Europe, not wait for crumbs from America while Russia and China swipe the tablecloth from under the plates.
