Just Jim

No deal a real possibility

By 11th July 2018 No Comments

Dog’s Brexitfast

The White Paper and the Chequers Deal are a dog’s breakfast not a basis for Brexit. It is highly unlikely the EU is going to accept its “cake and eat it” approach. They may be bribed by losing the £39 divorce bill but will probably conclude that the fearsome complexity of it all and the breaches it would make with regard to customs and freedom of movement, make it impossible to do a deal.

We are stepping up “No Deal” preparations. A minister admitted this week they included massive new lorry parks at Dover. So, we can now see in plain sight the reckless stupidity of it all, but that is the way we are heading. This is how a No Deal Brexit may happen.

The Prime Minister now has a Cabinet signed up to her unworkable compromise. Reined against her are at least 60 Tory MPs in the European Reform Group, large sections of grassroots activists, the opposition parties (Labour MPs have refused to be picked off) and very likely the EU, European Parliament and 27-member states.

The EU, and the German Chancellor in particular, know how difficult it has been for Mrs May to get this far but nevertheless it is almost certain Europe will want further concessions from the UK.

Mrs May will not be able to concede anymore, the Brexiteers have no plan and there is no agreement in parliament for anything else. Thus, we go over the cliff edge on World Trade Organisation terms, the lorries start queueing at Dover and tension starts to rise on the hard Irish border.

There is an answer, to ask the people what they think. People’s experience of the last two years of shambles may have made them wiser. Labour is inching towards this position following Unite’s conversion to the cause. We shall see.

Good riddance Johnson

Lord Carrington died within 24 hours of Boris Johnson quitting as Foreign Secretary. Carrington honourably resigned in 1982 when Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands. He was a decent man who held the office with distinction. Johnson was the polar opposite. His flippant style, lack of attention to detail and blatant disloyalty to the Prime Minister must make him one of the worst holders of this distinguished post. He is also a coward. He got out of the country when the Heathrow vote took place and sheepishly followed David Davis in resigning.

His political stock has been damaged even amongst those that were drawn to his “patriotic” buffoonery”. He will probably try and head up an opposition movement to May but might find her more strong and stable than he imagines.

New cabinet

Jeremy Hunt will restore dignity to the office of Foreign Secretary. It has been good to see someone left to get on with the job for several years. Let’s hope the energetic Matt Hancock now tackles the issue of elderly care with vigour.

Chris Grayling was lucky to stay on as Transport Secretary. He would probably have gone in a more planned Cabinet shakeup.

It’s a good job Tatton’s Esther McVey has managed to survive her problem with the “actualite” over universal benefits, because she is the only full Cabinet Minister with a northern constituency. Eleven represent seats in the South East.

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