On Thursday 18th June, the good folk of Greater Manchester constituency Makerfield go to the polls, for a parliamentary by-election, forced by the resignation of its MP Josh Simons. Simons fell on his sword for the explicit reason of opening up an opportunity for Manchester mayor Andy Burnham to return to Westminster – and potentially challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer in a leadership contest.
With a relatively tight 6.000 majority to defend, a surge of support for insurgent party Reform in the recent local elections, and the Greens taking support from Labour too, this seat is no shoo-in for Burnham – and the result of this contest will have reverberations way beyond this Northwest seat.
DIB boss Frank McKenna outlines the significance of the Makerfield by-election.
There may have been bigger by-elections in British political history. There have, perhaps, been more dramatic ones too. But it is difficult to remember a parliamentary contest quite as politically loaded, personally consequential, and system-defining as the forthcoming Makerfield vote.
This is not just a by-election. It is a stress test for the entire British political establishment.
The stakes are extraordinary because virtually every major political storyline in Britain collides in one Northern constituency.
At the centre of it all stands Andy Burnham – arguably Labour’s most recognisable and electorally resilient figure outside Westminster. Burnham has not merely endorsed a candidate or dipped a toe into the campaign. He has put his entire political reputation on the line.
If he wins, particularly against the current Reform surge, he instantly becomes the most formidable figure in Labour politics. Not just a potential future leader, but the man many in the party will openly describe as the antidote to Nigel Farage.
That matters because Labour’s current crisis is no longer simply about policy. It is about political connection. Burnham still has it. Voters who have abandoned Labour elsewhere often still like him. Even people who disagree with him think he sounds authentic, which, in modern politics, is rarer than a balanced budget.
A victory in Makerfield would confirm what many Labour MPs already suspect: that Burnham remains Labour’s most effective retail politician. It would also give him a parliamentary platform from which to shape, and potentially seize, the future direction of the party.
But if he loses?
That is where a potential political earthquake begins.
A defeat would not simply wound Burnham. It could finish his long-held ambition of becoming Prime Minister before it truly begins. Politics is brutal with perceived losers. Burnham understands that better than most. You do not get many “chosen one” moments in public life. This is his.
And if Reform wins, then British politics changes decisively.
Farage’s party is already riding a wave of momentum following stunning local election performances and growing polling strength. Among their many gains came seats on Wigan council, and in wards within the Makerfield boundary.
However, taking the Makerfield parliamentary seat, a seat Labour stronghold since 1906, would be psychologically seismic.
It would prove Reform is no longer merely a protest movement. It would demonstrate that the party can smash directly through Labour’s old industrial wall in genuinely serious contests too.
That is why this contest terrifies Labour strategists.
Because Reform is no longer fighting solely on traditional right-wing territory. It is competing for disillusioned working-class voters who feel economically insecure, culturally ignored, and politically abandoned. If Farage can beat Burnham in Makerfield, then suddenly Reform starts looking less like a disruptive insurgency and more like a credible future government.
And lurking just beyond Reform is another complication for the Right — Rupert Lowe and his new Restore movement.
A strong showing for Elon Musk backed Restore would signal something equally important: that even Reform may not be radical enough for sections of the electorate. Lowe’s emergence risks fragmenting the populist right while simultaneously dragging political debate even further in that direction.
Meanwhile, on the progressive side, the growing influence of Zack Polanski and the Greens adds another layer to the chaos. The Green Party’s internal debate about whether to go all-out in Makerfield or tacitly assist Burnham reveals how strategic and consequential this contest has become.
A decent Green performance – even a strategically reduced one- further underlines the wider truth emerging across Britain: the traditional two-party system is fragmenting in real time.
For decades, Westminster operated on the assumption that Labour and the Conservatives were permanent gravitational forces around which everyone else merely orbited. That assumption is collapsing.
Now Britain looks increasingly like a genuinely multi-party democracy:
- Reform reshaping the populist right
- Greens consolidating younger progressive voters
- Restore pressuring Reform from the nationalist flank
- Liberal Democrats quietly rebuilding in southern England
- Nationalists maintaining influence in Scotland and Wales
Makerfield is where all of those currents meet.
Which is why the result matters far beyond one constituency.
If Burnham wins comfortably, Labour may conclude that personality, authenticity, and regional leadership are the route back from political drift. Pressure on the government to change direction, and probably leadership, will intensify immediately.
If Burnham scrapes home narrowly, Labour survives, but the panic could deepen.
If Reform wins, then Westminster enters full-scale political crisis mode.
Because a Reform victory would raise the question many Labour MPs currently whisper privately but avoid publicly:
If Labour cannot hold Makerfield with Andy Burnham as candidate… where exactly can it still win?
And beyond Labour, there is the wider constitutional question hanging over British politics.
Are we witnessing a temporary revolt against unpopular governments? Or are we watching the permanent collapse of the political duopoly that has dominated Britain for a century?
Makerfield may not answer that question completely.
But it might be the moment Britain finally realises the old political era is over.
Look out for Frank McKenna discussing Andy Burnham and the Makerfield by-election as a guest of Chris Maguire on the Northern Spin Podcast, out on all the usual platforms soon.
