I fear that Kamala Harris has not convinced enough waverers over the economy and immigration, and therefore Donald Trump will return to the White House.
The fact that it is even close between a convicted felon and extremist and a woman with good values and a generous spirit tells us that things are rotten in the state of America.
Apparently it is because Trump makes outrageous statements, promises to rip up the rules of democracy and pledges to take out his enemies, that people are voting for him.
Accusations about fascism are usually overdone. But look at Trump’s event at Madison Square Garden at the weekend. A mass rally, gross insults against immigrants and a promise to deport a million of them. There are elements of the Nuremberg rallies there.
Harris had a bounce in the polls when she took over from President Biden, but she has fallen back for a number of reasons. The economy is people’s top concern not abortion rights. Against all the evidence and billions of dollars that the Democrats have put into infrastructure, most voters want to
blame Biden/Harris for past inflation and believe Trump is stronger on the economy.
The problem of immigration along the Mexican border has not been solved by Biden/Harris. Although Trump did not fully build his wall, many people feel he will reduce the flow of migrants by fear. Trump has also latched on to an historic isolationist feeling that has always lurked under the surface since the inter war years. If you live in Montana, Ukraine is a long way away. Put up the tariffs, end foreign involvement, has a big appeal. Finally Trump has gained some surprising support among Hispanic, male black, and young voters, when one had thought they would be Harris’ natural territory.
Kamala Harris would be a good choice for America. Her open, positive, optimistic demeanour is what this divided country needs. However it will be remarkable if America votes for a woman of colour who also has to defend an incumbent record without actually being the incumbent.
It could still be very close and that could be a big problem, particularly if Trump loses, but not exclusively so. The Democrats have a just claim that the odious Elon Musk has introduced bribery into the election in the most crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. However the real threat of disputes
after a close poll would follow a narrow Trump defeat. Plans are already in place for him to harass officials and go to court. We remember the scenes at the Capitol on Jan 6 2021, let’s hope it does not come to that again.
What effect would a Trump Presidency have on us? Relations between Starmer and Trump would be difficult after the row over Labour allegedly paying staffers to work for Harris. Trump has pledged a massive programme of tariffs against all countries including the UK. The threat of the USA to pull out of NATO would be back on the agenda as would Trump’s admiration for strong men like Putin.
Fasten your seatbelts and hope I’m wrong
THE OTHER ELECTION
Seatbelts won’t be required for the other election announcement this week.
It looks as if Kemi Badenoch will win the Conservative leadership race. Robert Jenrick’s campaign has been to set out specific policies whereas Kemi Badenock thinks a period of contemplation is needed first. She has also not gone down the road of promising to quit the ECHR. Jenrick has raised a lot of awkward questions with his determination to leave. Would candidates who opposed the policy be in his Shadow Cabinet? Would Tory MP who voted against the move in a
future government lose the whip. These theoretical arguments have meant his campaign has faltered and it is likely Badenock will win.
Will she lead the party into the next election. Read Frank McKenna’s blog last week.
