With speculation rampant about which taxes the Chancellor is going to raise in the Budget, it is surprising that we will be decorating our Christmas trees before we know.
The thinking had been that a statement in late October was a long time to wait. Economic growth is sluggish; productivity shows little sign of improving and people’s frustration is manifest. At least, so the thinking went, let business see the government’s plan and then investment decisions can be taken.
One thought is that the Prime Minister’s enhancement of his own financial team at 10 Downing Street might have meant that Sir Keir Starmer wants his people to have time to make their input. But that raises another issue. Rachel Reeves has lost Darren Jones, her Chief Secretary, to fill a similar role for the PM who has also brought in Minouche Shafik who has vast global economic experience.
Long in the tooth commentators like me remember the late 80’s when Margaret Thatcher brought in an American economic adviser Allan Walters. His
second guessing of the then Chancellor, Nigel Lawson, led to Nigel quitting spelling the beginning of the end for The Lady.
There are no indications yet of tension between Nos 10 and 11. Indeed it has been one of the few good things about this government that it lacks the debilitating tension that came to cloud Lawson’s relations with Thatcher and Gordon Brown and Tony Blair.
Also, Reeves shows no signs of ambition to be Prime Minister despite the fact that labour’s search for its first female leader looks likely to be even longer following the near implosion of Angela Rayner. If you ever wonder why many women are put off a political career, just look at today’s headlines. It is true Rayner has made big mistakes with her housing arrangements, but there is misogyny and snobbery mixed in with the otherwise excellent journalism without which we would be none the wiser.
So, Labour faces a difficult autumn whilst the Tories wait to replace Kemi Badenock with Robert Jenrick, the only Tory who seems likely to give Reform UK a run for their money. The problem for Labour and the Tories is that Nigel Farage has a
simple ruthless message on illegal immigration and they are left trying to catch up with incremental steps. Let’s have the real thing voters are likely to conclude unless the Chancellor can get the economy moving on November 26th.
On the left we still await the formal birth of Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s Your Party. But they already have another party that can’t wait to do a deal with them. The Green Party’s newly elected leader Zack Polanski is clearly a fan of the Islington gnome. Zack gives the impression that he has less desire for tree hugging and prefers the class warfare of Jeremy and Zarah. It will be interesting to see how Green members who are rightly concerned as our crops wither or flood, our moors burn and our rivers are polluted, react to this radical change in their party.
So, an interesting autumn awaits with a State visit from Donald Trump who is trampling American democracy in the dirt.
