BITE THE BULLET
Some blogs ago I warned that it was a mistake to put off the budget until the nation was more interested in turkey than tax.
The autumn has been dominated by endless speculation on what the beleaguered Chancellor might do from wealth and large property taxes to a new levy on gambling or the social media giants. None of it has helped business confidence which is essential to get the growth the government needs to get out of the doom loop.
In July, the Prime Minister said “yes” when challenged to say whether he would keep his pledge to no rise in VAT, Income Tax and National Insurance for employees. This week he didn’t directly answer the repeated question from Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch. So, it looks as if the frantic search for lots of minor tax increases may have failed and Labour are going to bite the bullet and go for one of the big three, probably income tax.
There will be a mighty price to pay in political criticism, but public confidence in politicians promises is so low anyway that it matters less these days. But if it comes, it will be the right decision. The deficit is so big, the Chancellor needs the money that an income tax hike will bring.
DON’T MESS WITH MANCHESTER
Labour’s support used to come from the unionised, industrial North and Midlands. Its critics now believe it is a party that is more comfortable with woke North London university lecturers.
So, it was odd that in his recent reshuffle, the Prime Minister sacked five ministers from Greater Manchester having already fired the Ashton MP and Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Rayner. The removal of Jim McMahon as local government minister was particularly silly as he was a former leader of Oldham Council and knew his subject. Jonny Reynolds (Stalybridge) was also doing fine as Business Secretary until moved to Chief Whip.
The biggest mistake Starmer made though was sacking Lucy Powell from the Cabinet. Seven weeks later the Manchester Central MP is back as Deputy Leader. She ostentatiously sat next to her predecessor, Angela Rayner, at PMQs this week. Powell cannot be removed by Starmer a second time and is free to “throw stones from the outside.” That was the fear of Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson who stood against her.
Powell’s politics are not that different to Starmer’s, and she is not a natural rebel, so I think she will try and be constructive, but the whole episode is yet another example of ineptitude from this government.
UNITE AGAINST FARAGE
The people of Caerphilly have shown the way to beat Reform UK. They knew Labour was not going to win and united around Plaid to see off the Clacton klaxon Farage.
In the age of social media and election experts, it should be possible to identify the likely anti-Reform winner in most, not all seats. Most people do not want to entertain even the possibility of what is happening in America being inflicted on this country, but dealing with illegal immigration would help us all Prime Minister.
