For a party once hailed as the most electorally successful in the democratic world, the Conservatives have managed to land themselves in a spectacular mess. Labour has stumbled through its first 15 months, failed to impress business, and made little headway with the public — yet the beneficiaries in the polls aren’t the Tories, but Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats.
That’s not bad luck. That’s bad strategy.
The Tory leadership seems convinced that the route back to power is to lurch right, out-shout Reform UK, and wage louder cultural battles. It’s a political dead end. Every attempt to “out-Reform Reform” simply confirms Reform’s message and drives moderate Conservatives straight into the arms of the Liberal Democrats.
The result? A party losing voters on both flanks.
Reform voters aren’t looking for a slightly angrier Conservative Party. They want disruption and indignation. Trying to mimic that only makes the Tories look rattled, not refreshed.
And while the party lunges rightwards, it repels suburban moderates, business leaders, One Nation Conservatives, and middle-class professionals. Exactly the people who once delivered Conservative majorities.
In key southern seats, voters who previously saw the Tories as the safe, steady option now view them as chaotic and shrill. The Liberal Democrats have seized this opportunity with quiet efficiency, rebuilding their yellow wall by offering moderation and stability — two qualities the Conservatives used to own.
This is the real tragedy: Labour’s underwhelming start should have created a perfect opportunity for the Conservatives to reassert themselves as the party of competence and growth. Instead, they’ve ceded the centre ground to no one — leaving both insurgents to profit.
If the Conservatives want a serious comeback plan, it starts with rediscovering what made them electable in their long tradition of election-winning.
Rebuilding economic and fiscal credibility needs to be the Tories number one priority. This is the foundation. Without it, nothing else matters.
Second, they need to calm the culture wars. Britain isn’t screaming for more outrage. Voters are tired of the noise. A Conservative Party that tones down the
theatrics and takes a balanced, reassuring approach will win back voters who just want competence, not conflict.
Third – become the Business Party Again Labour made early inroads simply by not treating business as the enemy. The chancellor’s first budget alienated many business owners who had been prepared to give Labour the benefit of the doubt. The Conservatives could reclaim this territory with conviction — rebuild relationships, champion SMEs, and show they understand investment, productivity, and growth.
The Conservatives aren’t doomed, but they are currently fighting the wrong battles with the wrong message. If they ditch the imitation of Reform UK, rebuild their economic credentials, reconnect with business, and park the performative culture wars, they can absolutely regain lost ground.
The electorate is not enamoured with Labour. The centre-right space is wide open. The only question is whether the Conservatives can remember what made them winners in the first place: pragmatism, competence, and a clear, disciplined economic plan.
After a disappointing start to her role as Conservative leader Kemi Badenock has enjoyed a better time since her impressive Tory Party conference speech in Manchester, and a series of much-improved performances at PMQs.
But, if she is to make the Conservatives the ‘natural party of government’ once again, she still has much work to do.
