A hundred years ago the major powers of Europe agreed the Locarno Pact. Some of the bitterness that surrounded the Versailles Treaty six years before had diminished and Germany was slowly being accepted back into the international community. The League of Nations was in place to preserve peace for all time.
What actually followed was the Second World War, but this merely increased the determination of the allies to set up institutions like the United Nations that would be more robust than those of the inter war years.
It started well. The UN confronted communist aggression in Korea and separatism in the Congo. International courts have sought to settle disputes and punish war criminals. NATO and the Warsaw Pact headed by the Soviet Union mostly ensured stability.
Countries still acted in what they saw their own interests. The United States in Vietnam and the Soviet Union in Hungary and Czechoslovakia. The Iraq war ultimately bypassed the UN but look at Britain’s attempts to get the organisation’s endorsement. There was still a belief in international institutions, particularly to deal with the emerging threat of global warming.
But now all that has changed. It is true that even before Trump and Putin, the propensity of countries to act solely in their own interest was growing and weakening the international institutions. However, the invasion of Ukraine was of a different order.
Naked military aggression by Russia in 2022 has been followed by the return to office last year of Donald Trump. He has broken with the assumption that the United States was unconditionally on the side of democracy. His approach has left the world either uncertain or convinced that might is right.
It appears Trump’s vision of the world is that the USA will have untrammelled power to control states from Greenland to Cape Horn. If Russia settles for its existing gains in Ukraine, it should be a business partner for the USA.
Then we come to the Chinese where the breakdown of the international order could be most spectacularly displayed. Pointing to Venezuela and Greenland, the Chinese can mount a justification for attacking Taiwan. America’s moral authority to oppose it is shot through. One wonders if Trump would fight for the island or secretly hope the Chinese conquest is quick so deals can be done to reestablish Taiwan’s microchip industry.
And where is Europe in this new world order? It is a community of 745 million people. Economically and intellectually powerful with great cultural and democratic traditions. Why does Trump reluctantly respect Russia and China, but pours scorn on Europe?
He believes we have prioritised social benefits and pensions over military spending, relying on the USA to pick up the tab. He is right about that, but wrong about Putin.
The end of the old order poses a huge challenge for Europe. We have to undergo a major change of mindset. I’m sorry to say money has to be spent on guns not butter. Younger people in particular have actually got to think about the horrible possibility of laying down their lives for their country. European countries like Hungary and France have got to drop their petty nationalism and create a European Army with the same kit to confront the common danger.
I never thought I would be writing this stuff. I was full of optimism in 1990 for a broadly liberal democrat Europe with Britain as member of the EU spreading its economic benefits to Russia, the Middle East, and North Africa.
Now we must prepare to face down military and cyber aggression alone without the USA.
