The financial crisis of 2008, the MPs expenses scandal just after, Partygate during Covid and now the epic scale of the Epstein revelations have not only disgraced politicians but made it difficult for them to govern with authority.
That is certainly the position of Sir Keir Starmer. The decision by the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, to call on him to quit, had the unintended consequence of a circling of the wagons around the Prime Minister at Westminster. The timing was wrong for the three main challengers. Angela Rayner still has her tax matters to resolve, Wes Streeting is busy clarifying his past relationship with Mandelson and Andy Burnham is not available.
But with further revelations about Epstein and the prospect of having to deal with a mounting crisis around the monarchy, how can Sir Keir get the publics attention on what he is doing about the cost of living and growth? It is likely to be very difficult which leads me to ask if the Gorton byelection could lead to a fresh crisis in his leadership.
To answer that I have to try and predict what is going to happen in a contest that nobody can predict with certainty.
Some have written off Labour’s chances of holding the seat. This is foolish. This is Manchester (and a part of Tameside). This is heartland territory where party activists know where the voters live and loyalty runs deep despite all that has happened since the General Election.
However, the candidate is not Andy Burnham. It is not even Bury Council leader Eamonn O’Brien who, rumours suggest, was favoured nationally. Instead, it is Angeliki Stogia who I met when doing a hustings meeting for the Chester South General Election contest where she failed to beat the Tories despite the Labour rural landslide.
Despite a 13,000 majority to defend Stogia carries the dual burden of incumbent governments doing badly in by elections not to mention the local and national scandals that surround this contest.
Which brings us to the Green Party. If we believe that Labour grassroots want to swing left and give Sir Keir a bloody nose, then their new leader Zack
Polanski has given them an ideal way to make a protest. They have an agreeable candidate in the shape of Trafford plumber Hannah Spencer who has been helped by the decision of the Workers Party (who got 10% last time) and Your Party not to stand. They are just my favourites to win. I say this despite the obstacles they have to overcome.
They have no councillors in the constituency. They got 10% of the vote at the General Election compared to Labour’s 51%. All their policies will not appeal to socially conservative Asian voters, particularly on legalising drugs. Furthermore, although still an issue, Gaza may not be quite as potent an issue as the Greens were relying on.
Finally at the outset Reform saw this as a chance of a big victory in Labour’s heartland. Their problem is that the Denton wards where their support is strongest are smaller than the Manchester wards dominated by Asian and student residents. They will not generally be attracted to the policies of Reform candidate and academic Matt Goodwin. Furthermore, another right-wing candidate Nick Buckley (Advance UK) might take some support away in a result that could be mighty close.
