Thursday night will probably be remembered as one of the most critical moments in what has been a month of political highs and lows.
I don’t know for sure because this is being written 24 hours before so the following is all projection, but as someone closely following the US Presidential race, these are my thoughts ahead of the show.
Stood before an adoring crowd, Hollywood legends, and with the world’s TV cameras braced to capture every inflection, utterance and glance – VP Kamala Harris is preparing to accept the Democrat nomination as their candidate for President in the forthcoming election.
Having spent the week surrounded by her most trusted aides, speechwriters, pollsters and presentation coaches, Kamala has some big decisions to make.
It is true that most citizens don’t have a preconceived idea about who she is, what she stands for or what a Harris’ presidency would look or feel like. To have served as VP for three years but to have flown so low under the radar that you are largely a political unknown is either a tremendous shortcoming or a massive opportunity.
For Harris and the team surrounding her, they will see it as the latter.
And what an opportunity it is.
She will be afforded an hour before an audience who want her to succeed, uninterrupted by opponents or foes, live streamed into every American home to set out in simple terms, why she should be the next President of America.
She will talk a little about her background, her Indian and Jamaican roots, her middle-class upbringing and her role as a mom and spouse.
She will remind people of her achievements as Attorney General for California bringing good to bear over evil, her record of prosecuting and holding people to account.
But most importantly, she needs to connect with key demographics, voter groups and on the issues which will define this election.
As with every election, the economy will be top of most voters’ lists
And there is a pleasant aligning of the stars to help her.
As she stands up to speak in Chicago on Thursday night, another keynote address will be being finalised in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
There, on Friday morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be revealing his intentions for interest rates for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. The minutes of the Fed’s meetings were released earlier this week, and it is now widely expected a cut of around 0.25% in rates will happen in September, only 6 weeks before the election.
Without pre-empting Powell’s announcement, Harris can add careful management of the economy, reducing the cost of borrowing for car payments, credit cards and mortgages, and reversing the runaway inflation which erupted during the Trump Presidency to her speaker notes.
She will want to convince working families and the middle class that she has their interests at heart and that any tax hikes will not penalise them. She will want to champion their priorities of home ownership, job security, and affordable healthcare and insurance.
And she will want to appeal to the floating voters across the swing states for whom immigration, border control, law and order and the military are key factors. She will need to tread the line between taking tough decisive actions and understanding the need for reform very carefully.
And she has a tremendous opportunity to connect with the largest election group – one which her opponent scores poorly with – female voters.
She can talk about safety, choice, opportunity and recognition in a way no other candidate can.
There are of course challenges.
Kamala Harris is not a great orator. She isn’t a speech giver who rolls with the crowd. She doesn’t have that relaxed cool vibe her good friend Barrack Obama has, nor does she have the charismatic charm of former President Clinton.
Her speeches to date have been delivered verbatim, from the autocue, with a polished but stage-managed feel. The benefit of this is she is less likely to make a mistake, but the downside is that in an era of authenticity it lacks that ‘real feel’.
So, Kamala and her advisers have their work cut out.
I hope they stick to what they know best. Now isn’t the time to go ‘showtime’ trying to turn Kamala into a wisecracking, Trump-slaying, rabble-rouser. Leave that to her VP choice and the various party faithful who relish that task.
Kamala must be presented as a serious politician, one who has held high office in her state and in the current administration. It can be left unsaid that this is in contrast to her opponent who is described by pop culture as ‘weird’ and by his own campaign team as ‘unhinged’. I hope her team express that there is political capital in being competent, predictable and sensible and leave ‘show business politics’ to others.
Picking the right audience is vital too.
I would like her to talk directly to TV viewers at home rather than chase cheers and rally applause from the dedicated Democrats in the room. She needs to show how her experiences and abilities are the right ones for the challenges the whole nation faces.
And being a strong leader means having a strong team around her.
Kamala should acknowledge the great Democrat leaders who have come before. Pay tribute to the governors, senators and mayors in towns and cities and states up and down the nation working to make life better for their residents, and of course thank her boss Joe Biden for his leadership.
Kamala’s team will have more detailed polling than you or I have seen but it won’t tell a different story. People want change.
They are fed up with politicians acting like politicians. They didn’t see Biden or Trump as competent. They hate the polarisation that is happening at pace.
But they don’t want revolution. They don’t want a President who is going to drag the country further apart when it needs to pull together in tricky geo-political times.
They want someone who is competent, who understands their priorities and isn’t going to embarrass themselves and the nation on the world stage.
This might just be the perfect moment for Kamala Harris to just be herself.
