Politics
The F-word is back in politics.
Presidential hopeful and current front runner Donald Trump stands accused by his former chief of staff and his ex-head of the military of being a fascist.
And Trump’s former top aides supported their claim by recalling the times he declared ‘Hitler did some good’ and how the American billionaire-turned-politician longed for ‘the good generals, like Hitler had.’
So, it was enlightening and frightening in equal measure to see Trump take the stage at Madison Square Garden this week with a cast of propagandists and apologists, proud boys, antisemites, racist comedians, fire and brimstone evangelists – in a political event the likes of which America hasn’t seen since the infamous fascist German American Bund rally of 1939 in the same venue.
But is the message getting through to Americans?
Perhaps the word fascist doesn’t resonate with them. Perhaps its just too big of a claim to comprehend. Perhaps they believe it couldn’t happen here, not in the land of the free, or perhaps they reckon, even if it does, it doesn’t affect me – I’m not gay, I’m not a socialist, I’m not a Jew, they won’t come for me.
Citizens in 1930’s Germany failed to acknowledge the same threat.
Back then, disgruntled by a broken political system which made them feel they were losing out, they entertained a populist who played on their fears and told them it wasn’t their fault, the blame lay with others – using coded dog-whistle language to conjure up spectres of ‘shadowy elites’, ‘the invaders’ and ‘the enemy within’. Sound familiar?
Americans already know of Trump’s leanings towards dictatorship and autocracy.
During his presidency, he distanced himself from the global networks and institutions which have supported America’s position as head of the western world, the largest free market economy, and have sustained an enduring peace. Instead, he cosied up to characters on the fringe of politics and sought out friendships and relationships with the leaders of despotic regimes like Russia and North Korea.
Trump, it seems, has a ‘hard man’ fantasy which he sees and admires in the likes of Putin and Kim Jong Un.
Trump shares their selfish desire for power and what rewards and riches it can bring for him and his family. His instructions and encouragements on Jan 6th 2021 were about clinging on to that power, whatever the cost.
That self-interest is evident once again in Trump 2024.
He is not motivated to make a difference for working Americans, to grow America’s influence in the world, or to offer support to those fighting oppression in far-away lands like Ukraine or Taiwan. Instead, his primary motivation is to use Presidential privilege and pardon himself to escape the penal consequences of the felonies of which he has been convicted and the impeachments he has received.
The price we will all pay to save his skin is the side deals he is willing to construct with extremist groups, the trade-offs with big businesses and foreign governments he is pledging, or the abandonment of civil liberties, democratic institutions, and our rule of law which he threatens just to secure his freedom.
These warning aren’t just from the left and liberal. In recent days the Bush Family, Dick Cheney and Arnold Schwarzenegger have all called on Americans to reject Trump.
Voters of all political persuasions must seriously consider their choices on November 5th – Does Donald Trump, a convicted felon, truly represent what they and this nation represents?
Sport
Speaking of winners and losers, the Dodgers won the World Series last night. And to rub salt in the wounds they won it in Yankees Stadium. That’s a bit like United picking up the Premier League at Anfield.
The LA Dodgers and near neighbours San Francisco Giants hold a special place in hell for a lot of older baseball fans in New York. These two franchises were originally the Brooklyn Dodgers and the New York Giants – home to Jackie Robinson who broke baseball’s colour barrier, and Willie Mays and Bobby Thompson respectively.
But because franchises are exactly that, they both upped sticks from Gotham in the late 50’s and settled in California instead.
This, of course, is anathema to British sports fans. Well until you recall Arsenal famously moved from their South London Woolwich-base to North London and more recently Wimbledon’s switch to Milton Keynes.
But franchises in American sport move frequently. NFL’s Raiders organisation have been based in Oakland, Los Angeles and now Las Vegas in the last decade or two alone. What happens to their fans? Do they carry on cheering for their heroes only from thousands of miles away?
This season the Cleveland Browns are again reported to be considering leaving, having had their previous plan to move to Baltimore leading to riots in the streets and the NFL commissioners granting the Maryland city an expansion side of its own to scupper the move.
It puts Everton’s move from the Old Lady at Goodison into perspective.
Business
Winning and Losing is alive and kicking in the US stock market too. While the UK government’s budget caused ripples of concerns in the domestic business community, the impact of next week’s Presidential election is being speculated on by the World’s money traders and stock markets.
Polymarket, one of a number of firms who track market sentiment, are suggesting Trump winning is the most likely expected outcome amongst traders and that has been baked in to market conditions.
Sort of.
With only a 65% expectation of a Trump win, there is still room for that to change and therefore, unconventionally, a Harris win – effectively the incumbent in this race – could be the one which triggered change and a stock scramble.
The preferred result, if you study market performance in election cycles, is a split Congress – one side taking the House the other the Senate, and a Democrat in the White House.
While market watchers and business voices believe Trump is likely to be more ‘business friendly’ with lower taxes and weaker or fewer regulatory controls, they are nervous about his appetite for tariffs and the chaos that can unleash on numerous sectors, supply chains and corporate earnings.
If Trump wins ‘Drill Baby Drill’ would be his mantra, a move which could see energy providers surge as new fossil fuel reserves were tapped, though it would hinder the major multinationals who have outsized investments in foreign energy supplies.
If Harris succeeds, then electric vehicle manufacturers, battery and green energy companies are likely to be winning plays on her watch.
But analysts all agree, don’t focus on the politics, it is the stance of the Federal Reserve not the Treasury which will dictate America’s future economic prosperity. And that is where there are serious concerns about Trump. His perceived intention to insert himself into the Fed’s decision making on interest rates, will bring an unwanted sense of political expedience into the process of managing the nation’s economy.
Me?
I’m going to bet that whoever wins the election, the US economy and its powerhouse brands and businesses will continue to drive markets upwards. Under Harris or Trump, global demand for data, brands and innovation will continue and, currently, no-one can hold a candle to US business’s ability to deliver that at scale and for the long term.
But its going to be an interesting week ahead.
