We’re deep into December and the holidays are nearly upon us, but for politics, business and sport it seems the season of giving is already in full swing!
The University of Michigan issued its December Consumer Confidence Report earlier this week and it painted two starkly different views of the nation. The data can be parsed in a number of ways, but if you split it down political lines the outcome was particularly startling.
Republicans surveyed showed the highest level of confidence since before the COVID pandemic, while Democrat-leaning respondents are predicting the sky is about to fall in.
“This isn’t just voters waving the flag of their favourite team,” the chief researcher told CNN. “Nor that they belong to different realities. They are looking at the same reality. They just don’t agree on the implications of the policies.”
Maybe.
I suppose it also depends on which media lens you are viewing the policies through, and the interpretation of their likely outcomes. I’m largely watching Bloomberg and CNBC with a smattering of CNN, so the tax cuts, tariffs, budget cuts and deportations which headline the Trump administration’s ambitions are seen as inflationary, likely to negatively impact corporate earnings, and fracture already compromised supply chains to push up prices.
When I flick over to Fox, OAN, NewsMax or any one of the Sinclair-owned local cable channels on my dial, the picture is very different.
Here, the policies are seen as securing American exceptionalism, likely to boost domestic manufacturing and jobs and put more bucks in workers pockets to be spent in local communities. And Republicans also welcome the planned roll back in environmental and climate crisis regulations as well as an end to diversity, equality and inclusion (DEI) measures which they see as the policies of ‘the woke’ for ‘snowflakes’. To them, Trump’s policies are a signal of strength from America to its friends and foes, which is translating positively with right wing voters.
Maybe.
But despite what the researchers claim, partisanship is surely playing a part.
In September, the same survey showed only 50% of Republicans felt favourably about the economy, compared to these latest figures which put it at a record 82%. What has changed? Nothing fundamentally – a rate cut, but Biden is still President, so it seems likely these GOP voters are future-casting their optimism into the Trump future.
Democrats on the other hand are running the other way. They hit a 91% favourable impression back in October but have seen that shrink to a perhaps more realistic 71% this month.
Much is still unknown about what Trump’s Agenda will actually reveal, how much of it is tactical posturing, and in what order and to what extent he will sign bills, but what can’t be denied is that those with an interest in the stock market, some crypto, or online retailing have already had a few great weeks.
The main indices are all up by about 6% for the month alone, Bitcoin busted through $100,000 per coin and is being talked up as a serious – if dangerous – store of value to challenge Gold and the Dollar as a reserve. And on Cyber Monday, Americans spent a whopping $13.3billion in 24 hours on stuff, making Jeff Bezos eternally grateful.
While Trump wasn’t my first choice, there is something in the air about what his presidency may bring – it has ignited those Animal Spirits again and surging confidence is always a good thing.
Maybe.
Other big news was the assassination of the Healthcare executive in NYC and the blanket coverage that followed and will only intensify now the shooter is in custody.
While everyone was shocked by the cold-blooded hit and we wait to learn what the motivation was, what has also been revealed is how deeply unpopular the medical insurance industry is.
Social media has been overrun with people sharing their stories of United Healthcare and others declining medical coverage or leaving families facing bankruptcy unable to pay their medical bills. A favourite shared story was the TikTok-er who posted the letter telling him that only for the first hour of his operation would they cover the anaesthetist’s bills – after that either wake up, or grin-and-bear-it, I guess!
It has also sparked America’s love of the macabre. Since the slaying there have been look-a-like gatherings in NY and elsewhere with thousands descending in hoods, face masks and backpacks and while the mainstream media are honouring the code of decorum of not speaking ill of the wealthy dead, there are plenty of online stories about the lawsuits he and his business were facing for insider trading, precipitous stock falls, as well as the manner in which his firm routinely denied claims.
We will learn more about the motives of the killer in the coming days, but it will surely have triggered some reflection and self-examination about the practices of the $900billion US healthcare industry.
Maybe.
And finally, not to be forgotten, America’s national sport this week announced a record-breaking deal which sees former New York Yankee Juan Soto take a short subway ride from the Bronx to his new home in Queens with my amazing New York Mets.
Soto – a 26-year-old native of Dominican Republic – has penned a 15-year deal worth $765million. This makes it the most expensive deal ever, and the terms see Soto pick up a $75million signing bonus and an annual salary of $46million rather than a deferred contract to protect the time/value of his money until the contract expires.
Soto signalled he was going to wait for his contract to expire and seek a new opportunity as a free agent, but this is still akin to Mo Salah in his prime leaving Liverpool and joining Everton. The Mets – though we enjoyed a Championship game against the LA Dodgers this year have – like the Toffees – lived in their neighbours shadow for a few decades now.
Of course it was always going to be about money. The new ownership of the Mets is lead by hedge fund manager Steve Cohen, who was the recipient of the largest ever fine for insider trading, totalling $1.8billion. And while this must have stung, it didn’t prevent Cohen from spending $2.4billion of his hard earned on a controlling 97% share of the Queens-based team.
Cohen is at least a boyhood fan of the Mets having grown up in Great Neck on New York’s suburban Long Island, and his stated ambition to win pennants and World Series’ is now definitely bolstered by the expensive addition of the powerful slugger.
Maybe.
No surprise then that money once again remains at the centre of everything going on in this nation this week – from shaping our politics, a matter of life and death in corporate America, and bringing long overdue hope to the noisy 7 Line Army sat in the Big Apple Reserved section at CitiField.
And it’s not even Christmas yet!
