I can’t remember the last time Conservative Party members had a meaningful vote at their conference. With Labour not far behind (and with the Lib Dems excepted) these autumn gatherings have increasingly become opportunities for ministers and shadow ministers to skate over awkward subjects in their speeches, and for money to be made from access events for corporate interests.
Well to the Tories credit, it looks as if the shock of defeat is going to bring a shaft of democracy to next week’s conference in Birmingham. Mind you I think that the depth of anger felt by Conservative members would have seen them break their normal obedient omerta if they had not been given a voice. On Monday members will be allowed to debate the economy, immigration, free speech, and housing.
So, no room there for a healthy debate about party organisation and MP behaviour. There is fury at the way 33 Tory MPs were caught up in scandals of one sort or another, often leading to dreadful by election results. There will certainly be discussion in the bars about the way the election was called with over one hundred seats without candidates. This let party officials impose favourite candidates in many constituencies.
This will be the first Tory conference after being ousted from government since 1997. I remember the empty halls where organisations should have had their stands in the Blackpool Winter Gardens. Next week’s event in Birmingham should be more interesting with the four candidates contesting the leadership being interviewed on Monday and Tuesday before making their final addresses to members on Wednesday.
Although Tory MPs have the final say on which two will go to the members vote, candidates will remember the importance of doing well in their conference hustings. In 2005 it was David Cameron’s performance that edged him ahead of the favourite at the time, David Davis.
This contest doesn’t have the feel that we are seeing the next Prime Minister being chosen. Although nothing can be taken for granted (particularly after Labour’s poor start in government), it is unlikely that the Tories will regain power in 2028/9. We are seeing chosen the Tory leader to carry the torch through the opposition years before handing it on to someone we can’t yet identify. Remember Hague, Duncan-Smith and Howard all suffered this fate before Cameron’s victory.
James Cleverley is my choice, a steady pair of hands. Tugendhat is all over the place, seen as a moderate, he flirts with coming out of the European Convention on Human Rights. Jenrick is obsessed with immigration and Badenoch has a streak of arrogance that won’t go down well with voters.
In 2022 the Tory conference saw Liz Truss scrapped. In 2023 a similar fate befell HS2. We wait in anticipation for what will happen in Birmingham.
