Who’d have thought it? A glum Labour Party conference, followed by a dynamic, even cheery Conservative one.
And that could be a problem for Tories at the end of their Birmingham gathering. Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has warned that Labour’s poor start in government doesn’t mean voters will be flocking back to the Conservatives. I agree, and think there wasn’t enough discussion about Reform UK or analysis of what went disastrously wrong for the party to end up with just 121 MPs.
This was exemplified by the presence of Liz Truss. Tim Montgomerie, founder of the influential Conservative Home website, said she shouldn’t have been given a pass. The former Prime Minister was not only let in, but told a packed fringe meeting she would have done better than Sunak. She didn’t realise what, apparently, Rishi Sunak knew when he succeeded her, that the game was up. Former Minister, and supporter of Sunak, Kevin Hollinrake reveals that the ex PM nearly didn’t take on the job in October 2022 because he knew he would be presiding over defeat.
The main business in Birmingham was to choose a new leader for opposition. I put it that way because one political commentator observed that the next Tory Prime Minister is still at school! I don’t think that, and the above named Kevin Hollinrake thinks Labour’s 34% support means victory is possible in 2029. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. Despite the volatile times in which we live, overturning Labour’s big majority first time around seems unlikely. Therefore, it is a stretch to imagine that one of this poor field of candidates will survive the next five years in dispiriting opposition, or if they do, will not be replaced after another defeat.
Next week the Tory MPs will reduce the field to three, then two. So how are things looking after the candidates encountered the grassroots in Birmingham? It is all a bit of a mess. The favourites of the party members are Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch, both had a mixed week. Badenoch withdrawing a claim that too much maternity pay was a burden for bosses was a clumsy episode which illustrated why Tory MPs have misgivings about her tendency to shoot from the hip. However, I agree with her comment that some cultural beliefs have no place in Britain. But I can’t see what can be done about it. Are borders officials going to question people on their views on the role of women, gays and whether Israel should exist? Nevertheless, we do have a problem with some people, already here, who have issues with Britain’s liberal values.
A big decision faces that small band of Tory MPs next week. Do they offer the party two right wing candidates. Badenoch with her reputation for risk, Jenrich who is unknown to the public and has come from nowhere on the back of the immigration issue? James Cleverly should be given a chance with the members to see if they want to indulge their right wing prejudices or move closer to the voters.
