TRUMP TRIUMPH
It’s always a potent political question, “Do you feel better off than 4 years ago”? Political commentators (me included) are often attracted to the personalities, the numbers, the colourful issues. The truth is that the economy is usually decisive in deciding who wins power.
So it has proved this week. Despite Trump being a convicted felon, making disgraceful personal attacks on his opponents and planning vendettas against officials who were only doing their job, he has won a thumping victory because he spoke about the issues people cared about.
Only Grover Cleveland in the nineteenth century has returned to the top job after a break. Trump is on course for total control of Congress, with a conservative Supreme Court. It would be an alarming concentration at the best of times, but with Trump’s authoritarian instincts, the future is unpredictable.
The returning President may choose to tone it down now that he has won and is not seeking re-election. There has been talk of him trying to amend the constitution to permit himself a third term. It would require two thirds majorities in both Houses and 75% of the States voting for it. That ain’t going to happen.
A lot else will happen, but the scale of it will matter. He has pledged to deport a million undocumented immigrants. Really? Think about the logistics of doing that. The spectacle of the police, and even army, taking people from their homes. (they are unlikely to meekly present themselves at deportation centres). More likely he will deport criminal refugees and work on closing the Mexican border.
Then we come to issues affecting us. The plan for 60% tariffs against China and 20% tariffs against even friendly countries like us, could have big implications for Rachel Reeves budget which has little room for manoeuvre. Oh! for increased trade with the EU!
Another headache for Reeves will come from Trump’s insistence on NATO countries paying their way and not relying on the USA to shoulder an unfair burden defending Western Europe. That demand will come at a time when Ukraine may well be compelled to lose a fifth of its territory in a ceasefire deal due to reduced US support.
If 60% tariffs were imposed on China, it might increase military tension over Taiwan. Would Trump fight to defend it when he has criticised the Democrats for getting into too many wars?
SAD END FOR BIDEN
Joe Biden initially said he would be a transitional President. But success in the 2022 mid term elections led to a determination to seek a second term. It took a further 18 months for that strategy to end in the humiliating Presidential debate. Kamala Harris had little time to get known. That said she should have distanced herself more from Biden and not believed that not being Trump would be enough when people were making it clear that the cost of living was the big issue.
There could now be a big fight over the future of the Democrats between radicals and moderates.
UP THE POLLS
The whole narrative for this election was that it was going to be very close, take weeks to count, end up in the courts with rival sets of electors being sent to Congress in January.
Once again, the pollsters screwed up by failing to reach many working class whites, blacks and hispanics who don’t respond because they are not interested or are suspicious.
The mistrust of politicians is now extended to pollsters.
