There is always a temptation to tell your audience what they want to hear. That is probably the explanation for the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, recently telling the CBI that there would be no more tax increases this parliament.
Ever since there has been a desperate rowing back from this foolish pledge, with the Prime Minister in particular refusing to back the categorical pledge. He has been concentrating instead on his milestones for delivery which got mixed reviews.
The shine has come off Rachel Reeves. Perhaps it is temporary. If the economy grows and public services improve, she will receive the plaudits. However, since that July day when she became Britain’s first female Chancellor, it has been a rough ride. The cut in winter fuel payments dominated news light August. Then we had the gloom laden build up to the budget which hit business, hospitality, hospices, and farmers. Finally, the Chancellor has picked up an unhelpful nickname that might stick, Rachel from accounts, following suggestions she polished her CV.
It is to be hoped that the big tax take from her first budget to deal with Tory mismanagement of the economy will work. Also, she is on the right track seeking closer economic ties with the EU. In their weakened state they are likely to be more receptive to us.
However, the pledge on no more taxes was a hostage to fortune from Reeves who’d been ultra cautious in opposition.
The task of shadowing the Chancellor has fallen to Mel Stride. An easy going one nation Tory, he would have made a good leader at a time when the priority for the Conservatives is to heal internal wounds rather than prepare for office. I was at an event in Westminster with him last week where he acknowledged that Partygate, the Truss budget, the stop the boats pledge and the poor General Election campaign had all contributed to the Tory defeat. He did not attempt to make policy which is correct but did believe that the triple lock on pensions was unsustainable in the long term.
We can get some indication of his politics because Nigel Lawson was his hero. The Tory Chancellor in the late eighties controlled inflation and got taxes down.
IRAN NEXT?
When brutal dictatorships fall, they often do so suddenly. Russia and Iran have been embarrassed by the fall of Assad in Syria. Iran has also suffered at the hands of Israel. Its aim to control the Middle East through proxy fighters supported by Syria is likely over. Will this humiliation be the last straw for a theocracy which is holding down a nation of great potential if only it was governed properly. Women may hold the key. Who can forget their brave protests over how they dress?
Meanwhile the West has a dilemma. A proscribed terrorist organisation, Hayat Tahir-al Shams (HTS) has toppled Assad. Its claims to be moderate compared to ISIS isn’t saying much. However, if it has the sense to realise that the poor Syrian people are weary of violence, it might try the monumental task of governing this complex country without a further descent into chaos.
But just listing the following questions shows the difficulty. Can a central government rule without the torture that Assad thought was needed? Will ISIS regain strength? Will Israel’s incursion beyond the Golan Heights make matters worse? Will the Turks try and crush the Kurds in NE Syria?
We need to keep a close eye on Syria….and Iran.
