As it stands our “special relationship” with the United States has been rewarded with “only” a 10% tariff on all goods and 25% on cars, our biggest export to the USA.
Sir Keir Starmer has had a pretty rough ride since coming into office but has rightly gained credit for his response to the volatile American President, both in relation to Ukraine and Trump’s tariff war. UK business is largely behind his reluctance to immediately retaliate and risk damaging escalation.
It might prove a wise move, but there are still dangers up ahead. We could be seen to be craven in the face of a President who has little respect for American democracy and is trashing his relationship with long standing allies in favour of dividing up the world between the American, Russian, and Chinese empires.
More immediately many of the assumptions made in the Spring Statement only two weeks ago have been undermined. We are set for a summer of debilitating speculation about more cuts and tax rises in the autumn budget.
TRUMP’S FRIEND
So where does all this upheaval leave the leader of Reform UK? Nigel Farage makes no secret of his admiration for Donald Trump and his gung-ho approach to policy making. But that closeness has become increasingly awkward for Farage. Trump’s threat to abandon Ukraine has gone down badly with the British people and there are dangers for politicians who identify too closely with the Trump administration as it punishes us with tariffs.
At a recent event I attended at Westminster with the Reform UK leader, he pleaded that Trump was emotionally pro-British, but the unease was evident in this normally bombastic politician.
Nevertheless, Farage clearly hopes that he can benefit from his opponents’ difficulties in the local elections in May. Labour was already due to start the traditional decline in council elections suffered by most incumbent governments. But Labour’s first nine months in office have also been dominated by fights with business over tax increases, and dismay by benefit recipients over cuts. The only consolation is that this round of elections is largely focused on the shire councils, not traditional Labour territory.
One of the county councils that has been Labour controlled in the past is Lancashire. For nearly thirty years between 1981 and 2009 it was in the red column. Since then, it has mostly been the Conservatives in charge. They had a fourteen seat majority in 2021. A senior Labour source told me they wished the poll had been postponed as it has been in other counties undergoing reorganisation. However, the Conservatives aren’t in great shape for Kemi Badenock’s first elections, so there may be an opportunity for Reform.
Most contests are away from the North West, with Labour having little to defend having done badly when these seats were last contested in 2021. So badly that when they lost the Hartlepool by election on the same day, Sir Keir Starmer thought of quitting.
Once again Sir Keir faces a difficult parliamentary by election along with council polling. Although Runcorn and Helsby had a healthy majority for Labour at the General Election, Reform was in second place. Their candidate, Sarah Pochin, has had a colourful political career. A Cheshire East Conservative, she was expelled from the party in a row over becoming mayor in 2020. She then joined the Independent Group but was expelled for rejoining the Tories nationally. Now she has embraced Reform UK.
With Kemi Badenoch admitting the Tories will lose seats and Labour unpopular, it will be interesting to see where the votes go, particularly in mayoral contests. Former Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns is standing in Lincolnshire, the Lib Dems are hopeful in Hull and East Riding while the Greens are strong in the West of England contest.
