By any measure Andy Burnham is more qualified to be the MP for Makerfield than Robert Kenyon. The Reform UK’s unimpressive interviews, his vagueness on actual solutions to the problems he identifies, and his social media history, all point to a convincing win for the current mayor of Greater Manchester.
However middle class sneering at Mr Kenyon may go down very badly with the voters. Ten years ago, exactly, Leave voters were partly motivated to poke David Cameron’s Remainers in the eye because they felt ignored. It was a mighty demonstration to the elite that the whole country does not enjoy the prosperity of London that more easily absorbs immigrants into its vast metropolis.
So, let’s not rule out Mr Kenyon’s chances altogether. We live in the age of the awful Trump who appears to believe that the norms of behaviour we took to be sacrosanct in politics no longer prevail. If you articulate the frustration of voters, it doesn’t matter if you enrich yourself or stir up violence with your thoughtless comments, people still vote for you.
So it may come to pass in Makerfield. Reform won every ward in the council elections last month and many voters are even taking an interest in Rupert Lowe’s far right Restore Britain party. So, there are plenty of voters who are fed up with the cost of living and immigration. There are plenty of voters who think Andy Burnham is a careerist, trying to use Makerfield as a springboard to No 10. There are plenty of voters who think he’ll say anything for a vote.
However, there are likely to be more who have been impressed with how he took on the role of mayor of Greater Manchester to do exactly what the creation of these positions was intended to do. That is replace council leaders, elected by their colleagues, who few could identify. Particularly in the covid crisis, Burnham represented his people against ill informed restrictions imposed from Westminster. The Greater Manchester model of cooperation amongst the ten districts long preceded his coming into office, but he got it and rode the wave of growth in Manchester that has been in sharp contrast to the central government’s economic performance.
Robert Kenyon wants to play the card of being a local lad, but Burnham has matched that. He used
to represent neighbouring Leigh and has dealt with local issues since becoming mayor if the wider region.
There are reports that Labour, anticipating a Burnham victory, are already planning a mayoral by election in greater Manchester on July 30. It is also being suggested the voting system will be changed back from FPTP to a supplementary vote system. Such a move would bring howls of protest because it might help Labour win with transfers from other parties even if Reform top the poll.
However we might all be distracted by then by an election for Prime Minister. Burnham’s current position seems to be that he wants Wes Streeting to be first to wield the dagger, whereupon Andy would enter the race. As things stand Sir Keir will be waiting for them.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves, the good folk of Makerfield have yet to speak.
