Even the most ardent Labour supporter could not pretend that the new governments first nine-months in office have been anything better than hit and miss.
On the international stage, there is no doubt that Keir Starmer has worked hard, and been successful, in regaining the UKs ‘soft power’. He also handled the riots in his early weeks as prime minister well, and the Labour administration has acted with haste and responsibility to secure (hopefully) the Scunthorpe steel plant.
In the coming months they will hope that the overdue reset with the EU and a new trade deal with our nearest trading partners can be secured, planning reforms progressed, and further progress on immigration control made.
Against these ‘pros’, Labour knows that the list of ‘cons’ is to the forefront of voters’ minds – pensioners fuel allowance, a much-criticised budget, and welfare cuts among them – as we approach county council and mayoral elections in some areas next month.
Ordinarily, this set of circumstances would have seen a spike in support for the official opposition. However, if the polls are to be believed, then not only have the Conservatives failed to take advantage of the government’s early woes, but they have been pushed into third place by Reform.
Already up against it in the forthcoming elections because of how well they performed in the corresponding elections five years ago – Boris Johnson’s Tories won a parliamentary by-election, winning Hartlepool for the first time, causing speculation about Keir Starmer’s future as Labour leader – the Conservatives are defending hundreds of council seats on 1st May which they will struggle to retain.
This will add further pressure to Kemi Badenoch, who appears to be struggling hugely in her role as Leader of the Opposition (LOTO).
She didn’t win overwhelming support from her parliamentary colleagues in the Tory leadership election last year, but her performances, both at the dispatch box in the commons (which matters to MPs, if not voters) and in the media, have been far from impressive.
If the LOTO can’t make progress when the government are struggling as they have been, what will she do when the tide turns, as it most likely will at some stage during this parliament.
Her major challenge, of course, is not Labour, but the Right-wing insurgency party led by Nigel Farage. This media darling – apparently greatly admired by the senior decision-makers at the BBC given the amount of airtime they gift to Reform’s leader – has stopped talking about Brexit, is supporting nationalisation of steel, and still sees immigration as his best card to play.
Kemi is trying to tag right to regain support from their traditional voters, but this ignores the uncomfortable truth that they lost far more seats to the Liberal Democrats in the General Election and are therefore in danger of alienating ‘one nation’ conservatives. Many Tory MPs are already asking ‘who next’? Badenoch may find herself fighting to retain her leadership this summer, hoping to avoid the humiliation of being the shortest Tory LOTO in the party’s history.
