Summer may be over, but the political season is about to heat up big style in the US.
The last few months have already seen dramatic events in the race for the White House, but it is all about to get very real.
On the Dem side of the house, the bold decision to ditch an incumbent President mid-way through the campaign appears to have been a masterstroke. The previously little known and barely admired VP Kamala Harris has been warmly welcomed as the party’s candidate and has ridden the wave of excitement her announcement produced to now in the eyes of many pollsters, be ahead of Trump in a number of key swing states.
Her campaign’s decision to position the battle as ‘prosecutor vs felon, good vs evil’ has been well received and it is hoped her years as California Attorney General – the chief legal role in the Golden State – will favour her forensic, calculated and controlled style over the hot headed, name calling and increasingly rambling antics of Trump when the two square off on the next and perhaps only televised debate.
The fact it is on ABC may be an important factor too. The broadcaster has approved a live debate without an audience and appointed hosts and facilitators who will ask questions and interrogate the candidate’s responses. This is in marked contrast to the rally style set piece showcase that Fox News proposed which Trump prefers.
The Dems are also relieved with the early reaction to their pick for VP.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was barely spoken about as the second name on the ticket but has also hit the ground running, been impactful in the few public appearances he has made and successfully branded Trump and his running mate JD Vance as ‘weird’ – and it has stuck.
Walz is a homely mid Westerner. He is a high school football coach, served in the military and looks and speaks like many people’s dads, uncles and grandads. But he isn’t without his issues.
He was arrested for drink driving in 1995, way before he entered politics, and there are some questions about how much real action he saw during his lengthy time in the Minnesota National Guard, but overall he looks like a sharp choice to balance Harris’ California lawyer credentials.
Dem strategists will have understood the importance of this decision. As with many elections, it will be decided by a handful of votes in a few key states.
The two places where 2024’s election appears destined to be decided are the Sun Belt and the Rust Belt. The former, ranging from Arizona and Nevada in the West to Georgia in the South East, will need the candidates to appeal to a mix of retirees, boomers with military service, and Hispanic and African American communities. The Rust Belt around the Great Lakes and former industrial towns of the north will see voters react and respond to issues like worker rights and job security, healthcare, and the state of the economy.
Walz’s trade union record, his work as a teacher before entering politics, his governorship of a mid-west state and his military service however patchy, were undoubtedly factors in his selection.
So, what does Trump need to do now?
After having looked like a virtual shoe-in for the election only four weeks ago, it is all unravelling fast.
His campaign team are also seemingly starting to feel the heat too. As was widely reported after his 2020 election defeat, Trump has difficulty taking responsibility for any of his actions, especially those which aren’t helpful to his campaign.
Already, it seems, his senior campaign staff are not so privately letting it be known that the candidate won’t take a briefing, doesn’t stick to the script and ignores the advice he is paying top dollar to receive.
The advice most political watchers are suggesting for the Trump campaign is to get back to basics – which for him means focussing on the two or three key issues he knows motivates and mobilises his supporter base – the southern border immigration crisis, American exceptionalism and a disdain for professional politicians – the MAGA playbook.
They are also questioning the value JD Vance has brought to the ticket since his selection.
As a youngish senator for Ohio he had currency when the Democrat campaign was deluged by accusations that Biden was too old and infirm. In that lens he added a youthful veneer to Trump.
But that all changed when Harris become the candidate. Then his age became less of a factor and attention turned to his beliefs. He is a classic populist and tends to oppose things rather than support them. His position on same sex marriage – he is strongly against it – his anti-abortion rhetoric, and his opposition to supporting Ukraine in their fight with Russia have all raised concerns in the Republican camp.
It is widely agreed by the people who follow campaigns closely that Trump has a problem with women – on many levels. The one demographic which he is least popular amongst is females, and as 53% of the voting population, that is a challenge. JD Vance doesn’t bring that core voter group any closer to supporting Trump so there are some rumblings that it may not be too late to ditch JD Vance for someone who may appeal more to suburban women and young female voters.
But, right now – it is probably neck and neck. The margin of error in most polls is 4% and that is the gap in nearly all key states and voter groups today. It may be too close for the bookmakers to call, but the momentum is clearly swinging in the Democrats and Harris’ favour.
But this is American politics. And Democrat too. Still time to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
The Democrat Convention – the big get together to affirm the candidates – takes place next week. It is an opportunity for the Democrats to put on a show which tells voters across the nation that they can be trusted, that their candidate gets it, and all those voters who don’t want Trump can be comfortable backing Harris/Walz.
But rumours are rife that single interest groups are plotting to make this their moment. Huge anti-Israel protests are planned, hardline environmental campaigners are expected to disrupt events, groups calling for the defunding of the police or other such causes will be visible and heard – all will send a shiver of doubt through electors watching from home through the lens of television and social media.
Democrat Campaign strategists will pray that will be overshadowed by the main event. They will hope Joe Biden has one last big speech in him, that celebs from Taylor Swift to Tom Hanks make the right noises on social channels, that Walz can rally the trade union and party faithful, and that President in waiting Kamala Harris can speak directly to ordinary American families about health, education, jobs and prosperity in a way that Donald Trump never can.
We will see. Hold on tight, it is going to be an eventful week.
