Already the pressures of office are coming to bear on the Prime Minister and Chancellor. On the one hand they suspend seven MPs for voting against the two child benefit cap, but public sector pay is possibly a different story. The pay review bodies have reportedly recommended that public sector workers should get 5.5% when inflation is heading down from 2%. One would have expected Iron Rachel to say it couldn’t be afforded. Instead, she seemed to run up the white flag on possible strikes if the unions didn’t get their way, saying there was a price to be paid for not settling.
On the two child benefit issue, the suspension of seven Labour MPs when the government’s huge majority wasn’t remotely threatened was “bold Prime Minister”. It asserts the power of PM and Chancellor but was it really necessary to sow the seeds of a narrative of splits so early in the parliament?
On the substance of the matter, the Chancellor says we can’t afford £2.5bn to lift the cap at the moment, but there may be another reason for the government’s reluctance to end the cap. It is not such a popular idea as the Labour left would have you believe. Many workers, not on benefits, are wrestling with the economic decision around whether to have third or subsequent children. There is a widespread belief that the decision to have a large family is a personal one (with its consequences) and not a matter for the state. The compromise may be to support more than two children if a family falls on hard times.
THERE’S NO MONEY LEFT, REALLY?
There is usually a squabble about how bare the economic cupboard is when a new government takes office. Liam Byrne left a self-indulgent note on his Treasury desk in 2010 declaring there was no money left. It provided the Tories with an enormous stick to beat Gordon Brown’s government with for years. No such foolishness from the outgoing Conservatives this time. Indeed, the former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt pointed to falling inflation and better growth. He also pointed out that higher taxes had been needed to pay the £400bn Covid furlough bill. Pity that didn’t get more emphasis in the campaign. One feels the Chancellor’s mock shock at opening the books is a prelude to tax increases in the autumn.
DON’T PUT YOUR DAUGHTER ON TRAIN NORTH
In a song Noel Coward gave advice to a Mrs Worthington about not putting her daughter on the stage. The National Audit Office seem to be suggesting the same thing for train travel from Birmingham to Manchester. The HS2 trains will be too long for platforms beyond Birmingham, so discouraging travel beyond the Midlands may be needed. What a disgrace! You can expect Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham to be demanding action from the new Transport Secretary.
GOOD LUCK KAMALA
As I forecast a few weeks ago Joe Biden would have to step down. He has an excellent economic record and is a decent man. But his frailty was a major distraction. Let’s hope that Kamala Harris from liberal California can convince the Mid-West what her values are and promise to do better on the Mexican border.
LONG FORM TORIES
The Conservatives have done the right thing in going for a long leadership election. The parliamentary party will have two opportunities to choose candidates that might appeal to the wider electorate, but it will still be for the grassroots, who gave us Liz Truss in 2022, to make the final choice.
