I read one of the Propel newsletters this week and it properly stopped me in my tracks.
Not because it was dramatic. Not because it told me anything I didn’t already know. But because it put it all in black and white, and sometimes that hits harder than the day-to-day feeling of it.
More than 300 licensed venues have shut in the first three months of 2026. That’s over three closures a day. Every day. And it’s now the second quarter in a row we’ve seen a decline.
When you zoom out, it paints an even clearer picture. In just six months, the UK has lost 0.7% of its licensed venues. Casual dining, the middle ground that so many independents sit in, has dropped 0.9% in a single quarter. It is actually heartbreaking.
And the truth is, if you’re in this industry, none of that feels shocking. It just feels like normal now.
Because you don’t need a report to tell you something is off. You can feel it in the way bookings come in slower, in the way midweek trade isn’t what it used to be, in the way people are thinking twice before adding that extra drink, that extra course, that extra night away.
You can feel it in the conversations you’re having internally.
And speaking honestly, it’s stressful.
As a business that operates solely in hospitality, this isn’t something we read and move on from. It’s something we’re living in, every single day. And I don’t think people outside the industry quite understand how constant that pressure is. Right now, we’re going through big menu changes across the business.
We’re looking at margins, supplier costs, portion sizes, wastage, and trying to work out how you keep quality where it needs to be, without pricing yourself out of your own market.
Because that’s the balance right now. Stay too premium and you lose customers. Drop too much and you lose what makes you good in the first place.
There’s no easy answer.
At the same time, we’re having to be tighter with staffing. Looking at rotas more closely. Watching hours. Being more considered with every shift. And that comes with its own knock-on effect.
It means teams are covering more ground. It means shifts aren’t always as smooth or as relaxed as they once were. It means the same level of service is being delivered, but often with more pressure behind the scenes.
And that’s the bit guests don’t see. They still expect, and deserve, great service, great food, great experiences. But the environment those experiences are being delivered in is getting tougher and tougher.
This is what those “300 closures” actually look like in real life. It’s not just a door shutting one day. It’s months of decisions, compromises, stress, and trying to make things work before it gets to that point.
Costs are still high across the board. Food prices are unpredictable. Wages are rising, which is right — but it adds to the overall strain when everything else is rising too.
Then you’ve got National Insurance increases, higher business rates, and ongoing supplier pressures layered on top.
At the same time, customers are feeling it too.
Household budgets are tighter. People are being more selective with how they spend.
Fewer spontaneous visits. More “occasion-based” spending. More awareness of price.
Even the most traditional parts of the industry are feeling it.
Fish and chips, something that has always been seen as affordable and accessible, is now averaging £12 a portion. In some cases, fish prices have doubled due to supply issues and fuel costs. We’ve already lost 1,500 fish and chip shops in the last three years, and this is only getting worse.
There are still areas of opportunity, and it’s important to recognise that too.
Hotels, for example, are holding stronger than other parts of the sector. They’re still below pre-Covid levels, but nowhere near the same level of decline seen elsewhere. With the cost of travelling abroad continuing to rise, there’s a real possibility that more people will choose to stay in the UK this summer.
Staycations, again, could play a big role.
For businesses in the right position, that could be a much-needed boost. For others, it might be a chance to rethink how they attract those guests.
The next 12 months aren’t just going to test businesses, they’re going to define them.
The ones that survive won’t just be the biggest or the safest. They’ll be the ones that stay switched on, stay close to their customers, look after their teams, and aren’t afraid to adapt quickly.
Because behind all the pressure, all the numbers, all the closures, there is still something incredibly powerful about hospitality.
People still want to go out. People still want to connect. People still want experiences they can’t get anywhere else.
And that’s what we hold onto.
