It has been a little more than 50 days since the new President took his seat in the Oval Office. In that time he has turned the global world order upside down, shocked long standing allies, disrupted the stock market and challenged the fragile peace which has kept the World relatively stable for more than 80 years.
Millions of column inches have already been written, thousands of hours of podcasts produced, and billions of eyeballs have seen memes and short form video either delighting in or expressing concerns about the new administration’s direction of travel.
For public affairs consultants charged with interpreting the political landscape it has also been a challenging time.
Firms and consultancies are struggling to determine what advice to provide their clients, how to leverage rapidly developing insights and influences, and how to help identify and shape strategic priorities for short and long term business success.
While every client’s needs are unique to them, there are a few consistent themes which we are advising our contacts to pay particular attention to.
The first, and perhaps most important, recommendation we are making is that in this time of rapid evolution and chaos, do not allow yourself to be defined as the enemy.
This administration sees the political and business world in a very binary way – you are either with us, or against us, there is no middle ground.
It is also increasingly vindictive. Business may find rowing back from a knee jerk reaction to a particular policy pronouncement is very difficult, even if the policy is abandoned as quickly as it was first proposed.
That has made it difficult for some organisations to decide which, if any, side they are on.
Obviously, they don’t want to be seen as against the will of the President – he was after all voted in with a significant majority of the voters – but equally some of the topics he has chosen to use as a line in the sand to separate his perception of friends from foes, leave business in a tricky spot.
The President has chosen dismantling DEI – Diversity, Equality and Inclusion – as one such rubicon. The MAGA crowd roared with delight at this, but firms who had invested time, energy and their reputation in championing inclusion are unsure how to react. Some decided to show support to the administration and followed suit abolishing their departments and ripping up the policies which they had been celebrating only a few short months ago. Others have shown greater concern for the impact this may have on staff, suppliers and customers and chosen not to make such a rapid ‘volte face’.
Some businesses have tried to keep a foot in both camps, abandoning the formal designations of DEI but maintaining the policies and practices which it had established around recruitment, culture and engagement.
This brings us to the second point we are stressing with clients, understand the ambitions of the administration rather than the tactics it is deploying.
In Trump speak, DEI is anti-meritocratic. It is his ‘cause celebre’ in speaking to his supporters who feel the playing field is tilted against them, giving favour to others based on sex, gender, race or colour.
Businesses want to be seen as fair. Being on the side of merit isn’t a bad place to be – having your best people in the most important roles is something all business leaders can support. How you ensure that under-represented communities share in those opportunities is for each business to decide, to inculcate into its culture, and put into practice through its actions.
Because navigating Trump policy positioning is an art rather than a science, in our view, companies are well advised to remain flexible in how they are responding to these policy announcements. We remind our clients the nation is politically polarised, as are your staff and customers, so embrace the underlying intentions but avoid proscriptive positions which may alienate swathes of your workforce, customer or stakeholder audiences.
And the third point we are making to clients and organisations we work with is to build public affairs teams who are creative problem solvers rather than ‘connected’.
In the past, public affairs teams have swung back and forth with the political tide changes. After decades of one administration, public affairs teams may well have taken on a similar political hue and become staffed by well connected conduits to power. But that all changes when the removal vans roll into The White House, Downing Street or the Presidential Palace.
One leading trade association I worked with in London had appointed a divisive fiery outspoken former MP as its spokesperson and as their lead stakeholder contact. While his political persuasion was still aligned with the ruling group all was fine, but he quickly found that after a change in Government he couldn’t get a meeting, wasn’t welcome at the industry briefings or getting willing takers for those invites to the cricket, golf and motor racing events he had previously flashed about.
The return of Trump to the White House has been accompanied by a wave of former staffers and supporters from the 2016 Adminstration touting themselves to businesses and organisations, promising an ‘insiders’ view or ‘deep understanding’ of the President and his agenda.
In my opinion, while the connections might be attractive businesses may be well advised to reject those advances. They are better served being focussed on designing solutions to the problems the administration is facing which impact their industry or market.
To that end, we favour retaining public affairs talent which is experienced and creative rather than simply based on past relationships. Government and business already have a symbiotic connection – and with experienced operators new contacts can be made, relationships forged and mutual trust established.
And for all its awkwardness, unorthodox and chaotic approach, this administration does want to get things done. It is remilitarizing, building ships, looking at infrastructure projects. There are opportunities for businesses out there, even more so if you can manufacture, assemble or add value in the USA.
More meaningful business is outcomes and results will come from programs and projects which deliver on these multiple shared agendas. Public affairs in these complex times should primarily seek a third way or a fresh idea which promotes alternative pathways and solutions to stated goals.
This is good news for creative public affairs consultants skilled in building coalitions around shared interests.
In the US that involves getting policies through Congress which in turn gets them budget approval, which may involve the peculiar process of reconciliation. That means winning support from chairs and committees as well as securing simple or super majorities of elected representatives.
For UK, the inclusion of a project or program in the Chancellor’s spending forecasts, in legislation as it works it’s way through both Houses, and passing the test or review by Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Navigating the process as much as the policy is critical.
One area where the US and UK political landscape is sharing common ambition is the shrinking of big central government.
In the US that is ideologically driven by a distrust of Washington, a fear of a ‘deep state’ and an idea that inside the beltway is ‘them’ not ‘us’.
In the UK it is largely driven by a more practical shift to devolving power closer to her citizens through the national governments and regional mayors and assemblies.
But the US currently has the advantage over the UK in achieving this. The states and their governance are well established, have tax raising powers, deliver much of the national agenda already and big ticket items like transport, education, health and law and order are managed at state level or below.
The other area where US regions steal a march over their UK counterparts is in economic development. The states are encouraged to compete with not only overseas cities and nations but with each other. While it does create some imbalance in the economic outcomes of the nation, it is sharpening everyone’s public affairs and stakeholder outreach endeavours. State and big city economic development departments and offices are functionally folded into their government systems and by extension provide business and the investment community with a voice, insights, and a seat at the table when legislation is being proposed.
While there are many things to roll your eyes at about the early surprises from this Trump administration – more to do with how it is being delivered than what it is doing which was widely telegraphed during the election campaign – there are still some things that UK administrations can learn from the US.
The UK Government, much like the Trump administration, has nailed its colours and future fortunes on driving productivity and economic growth. PM Starmer will argue that while it might share common objectives he will deliver them in a different, perhaps more thoughtful, manner. We will see.
If UK is to achieve this it needs the systems to make decisions, attract public support and most importantly private funding. UK business must have the networks and programs to not only compete with near neighbours in Birmingham, Bolton and Bristol it has to beat Beijing, Berlin and Baltimore too.
