Andy Burnham has had a meteoric week – Leader of Labour, Prime Minister, Opening Number 10 North… But this week may throw up some significant challenges… Martin Liptrot, Downtown’s Director of Strategy and Partnerships looks forward to what the next 5 days may reveal …
Andy Burnham’s first week was a “lip-smackin’, pint pullin’, snack munchin’, bus drivin’, vinyl spinnin’, office openin’, speech makin‘” whirlwind.
Unlike his predecessor, nobody can accuse the new PM of playing it cautious in his few days on office.
But this week may prove to be more treacherous waters for the new premier, as his legacy in Manchester is about to be tested.
It is the first major opportunity for voters anywhere to comment and express their opinion on Labour under Burnham, and who better to shape that verdict than the electorate which knows him best.
Thursday will see Greater Manchester go to the polls to elect Burnham’s successor as Metro Mayor of Manchester. From Bolton to Stockport, Trafford to Oldham voters will mark their ballots and that decision will, in part, be seen as a verdict on the previous decade under Andy’s rule.
Of course, each election is different from the one which went before, the candidates all have their own expertise and passion, and their popularity, performance and personality will play a part too.
But if, as widely claimed, Andy’s term as Metro Mayor was not just a civic success but the springboard for him to govern the while nation, you would assume his legacy would transfer support to Labour’s next candidate.
The polls currently indicate that will pass, although the Labour campaign is not expecting to win a majority on the first vote and is relying on being more people’s second preference when the transferable vote phase occurs.
Andy is perhaps fortunate that, in Bev Craig, he has a candidate whose experience in running Manchester City Council sets her head and shoulders above any of the other candidates on offer, a competent, classy and considered candidate.
I think it is likely that Labour will retain the Metro Mayor berth.
But the risk is still there. The Greens and Reform still hold some appeal across the geography based on May’s local election results and it wasn’t guaranteed that even if Andy had decided to see out his term as Metro Mayor he would have won at the next vote due in May 2028.
If Labour were to lose, or see its vote badly squeezed, it could perhaps be a sign that voters are rejecting the political project Andy is all set to champion for the country and giving a boost to other parties that all is still to play for.
It would definitely question Labour’s strength across Greater Manchester, supporting the argument that Andy’s charismatic appeal was masking a weakening of the party’s base in what has long been a heartland.
But it would also bring into question Burnham’s political authority. A Labour defeat could weaken the argument that the “Burnham model” is the best route to winning support in the Midlands and North.
So, with plenty of issues to tackle on the global agenda, Andy may be well advised to find one in Brussels or Dublin or Frankfurt and give No. 10 North a swerve this week until the votes are in and counted.
