I don’t think it was a great idea for Chancellor Healey to down a pint in one in a public place. Too many hostages to fortune in the future like Ed Miliband’s bacon sandwich.
I’m sure I’m being po faced but when you have just presented a budget where you are clearly in the most monumental financial straight jacket, it is possibly best to stick to your normal persona. Healey is straight down the middle old school Labour in a modern setting. A bit like John Prescott who got away with punching a voter because times were easier for Labour then.
The broad truth as I see it is that the British economy is flatlining with little hope of the ten years flatling of income improvement showing no sign of changing.
This is for a number of reasons. The world is in turmoil. We know this because when the Defence Secretary told us to stock up for natural disaster or war, people took him seriously. Tried buying a wind-up radio recently? Besides the international uncertainty for business investment, there is the impact of the Iran war on energy prices. That’s not
likely to go away as President Trump becomes more deranged in his remaining two years. There is also AI with its huge implications for employment worldwide.
Then there is the continuing damage of Brexit. As a staunch Remainer you might think I would welcome Labour’s new stance with open arms. The Downtown/Best for Britain event at the Labour conference heralded this change of direction. We even giddily discussed whether a referendum or election mandate would be needed for full re-entry.
Since then, the Prime Minister has truly reopened the debate and, for me, all the warning lights are flashing. Many Labour MPs in northern leave seats are very uneasy and that extends to Cabinet level. We need to convince the EU that Britain is serious about permanently changing direction, otherwise they are unlikely to agree to substantial negotiations. Andy Burnham has to go slowly, building consensus with Tories like Ruth Davidson and Andy Street. He also needs to concentrate on the issue of form filling which is hampering business so much. Freedom of movement is the most explosive issue of all, and I can’t see why he started with that. The food export changes to be agreed at the summit later this month are to be
welcomed but unless Burnham handles this carefully, the project to realign with the EU will be scuppered in an explosive row over immigration and nationalism that we all lived through before.
The final reason why I see little prospect of the economy growing is our own workforce. Foolish measures like workers rights on day one and the cost of employing young people have been major blunders by this government. But we also have to ask are we prepared to put our shoulder to the wheel. A survey out today suggests half of British people want to work part time, and employers are struggling to get people to work in the office three days a week. Online services set out guides on gaming the benefits system.
The Milburn review is expected to call for a substantial change in that area, but will Labour backbenchers of even the Chancellor have the stomach for action.
If the world doesn’t settle down, we carefully regain the economic benefits of Europe and change our attitude to work, there is no prospect of year-on-year improvement in incomes.
