BY ELECTIONS DUE
I am becoming a little irritated by Labour’s constant calls for a General Election. Of course, they want one because they’d win at the moment, and that’s why there’s not the remotest chance of the Tory turkeys voting for it.
The constitutional position hasn’t changed since Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair without going to the country in 2007, so sauce, goose and gander come to mind. That’s enough on the poultry theme.
However, the North West will soon provide two tests of the huge poll lead that Labour enjoys. Rosie Cooper has voluntarily stood down in West Lancashire to take a health job, and Chris Mathieson has resigned his Chester seat after a sex scandal. Labour holds both constituencies with majorities under 10,000. Even allowing for low turnouts in by elections, there should be considerable increases in Labour’s majorities. If there aren’t, then saucy doubts might start to occur in the party’s HQ that the 2024-25 face off between Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer might be closer than looks at present.
RISHI’S TASK
Rishi Sunak’s two immediate predecessors were unfitting for the office they held but we know have a serious clever man in charge. He lacks experience of the murky arts of politics which might be a problem with his fractious party, but for now his multiple challenges will take all his attention.
The list is formidable. Surging inflation, multiple strike threats, the NHS under huge pressure, social care with 160,000 vacancies, labour shortages, the cost of energy and the continuing crisis in Northern Ireland. Added to that is the unpredictable course of the Ukraine war.
To solve these problems either the government needs to spend billions that could spook the markets again or make spending cuts that would enrage hard pressed voters. Sunak is respected in the Treasury for his time as Chancellor. He will need all the skill he displayed during Covid to balance the demands of the market, the people, and the Tory Party.
TORY DIVISIONS
There will be huge pressure on Conservative backbenchers to stop the in-fighting but twelve years in office have left lots of them unhappy. There are Brexit hawks and one nation Tories as well as believers in Liz Truss low tax, small state Britain and fans of Boris Johnson.
Johnson claimed to have a hundred MPs backing his return but withdrew with a statement that implied that only he could win the next election. It would be nice to say we have seen the back of him, but I will be surprised if he can resist making life difficult for Sunak with a view to a return if the General Election is lost.
There are two other sets of people Sunak needs to watch. Red Wall Tories in the North who came in on Johnson’s coat tails and worry about the future of the Levelling Up agenda. Then there are Conservative Party members, the bloody infantry who were totally bypassed this week. The parliamentary party regards them as irresponsible, right-wing fools who foisted Liz Truss on them., but they deliver the leaflets.
